Presidential Highs and Lows: George H. W. Bush
How does a president who scores the highest approval rating in history to that point lose an election less than two years later? President George H. W. Bush learned the hard way that popularity can be fleeting in presidential politics. He also learned what for him became a dreaded phrase: "it's the economy stupid."
Bush entered the Presidency with one of the most impressive resumes ever. He had a distinguished service record in the U. S. Navy, enlisting on his 18th birthday to become the youngest aviator in the U.S. Navy at the time. He survived having his plane was shot down, and continued to serv until the end of the war. He attended Yale University, graduating in 1948. He was captain of the school's baseball team and played in two College World Series. After college he moved his family to West Texas, where he entered the oil business and founded his own oil company. He was elected to the US House of Representatives in 1966. In 1971, President Richard Nixon appointed Bush as Ambassador to the United Nations, and in 1973 he became the Chairman of the Republican National Committee. The following year, President Gerald Ford appointed Bush as the ambassador to the People's Republic of China and later to the position of Director of Central Intelligence. Bush ran for president in 1980 but was defeated in the Republican primary by Ronald Reagan. Reagan chose Bush as his running mate, and Bush became vice president after the Reagan–Bush ticket won the 1980 election.
After serving two terms as Vice-President, Bush ran for President and sailed to victory by a margin of 426 to 111 in the electoral college. He became president during a time of tremendous change in the world. Early on into his presidency the Berlin Wall came down and in 1991 the Soviet Union broke into a number of smaller nations. It was the end of the Cold War.
It was the rapid conclusion of the First Gulf War that gave people confidence that Bush had world affairs under control. On August 2, 1990, Iraq, led by Saddam Hussein, invaded its oil-rich neighbor to the south, Kuwait. Bush condemned the invasion and began rallying international support against Iraq among European, Asian, and Middle Eastern allies. His Secretary of Defense, future Vice-President Dick Cheney, traveled to Saudi Arabia to meet with King Fahd, who requested US military aid from the US, fearing a possible invasion of his country as well.
Iraq made attempts to negotiate a deal that would allow the country to take control of half of Kuwait, but Bush rejected this proposal and insisted on a complete withdrawal of Iraqi forces. A military ground operation was planned September 1990, headed by General Norman Schwarzkopf and made of troops from a number of nations in the coalition, but mostly American and British servicemen. Bush spoke before a joint session of the U.S. Congress and set out four immediate objectives for the operation and a fifth long term objective:
"Iraq must withdraw from Kuwait completely, immediately, and without condition. Kuwait's legitimate government must be restored. The security and stability of the Persian Gulf must be assured. And American citizens abroad must be protected. Out of these troubled times, our fifth objective – a new world order – can emerge: a new era – freer from the threat of terror, stronger in the pursuit of justice, and more secure in the quest for peace. An era in which the nations of the world, East and West, North and South, can prosper and live in harmony, a world where the rule of law supplants the rule of the jungle. A world in which nations recognize the shared responsibility for freedom and justice. A world where the strong respect the rights of the weak."
With the United Nations Security Council having supported the efforts, Congress added its support and authorized the use of military force and set a goal of returning control of Kuwait to the Kuwaiti government, as well as protecting America's interests abroad.
Early on the morning of January 17, 1991, allied forces launched the first attack, which included over 4,000 bombing missions by coalition aircraft. This continued for the next four weeks, after which a ground invasion was launched on February 24, 1991. Allied forces penetrated Iraqi lines and pushed toward Kuwait City. On the west side of the country, the retreating Iraqi army was intercepted. The ground offensive took only around 100 hours. In polling results announced on February 28, 1991, Bush's approval rating soared to 89%, a mark that would be surpassed later by another President Bush.
Bush stopped short of sending troops to capture the Iraqi capital city of Baghdad. At the time some people criticized him for this, as hundreds of Iraqi forces were able to escape. Many felt that Saddam Hussein had not been properly held accountable for his actions. Bush responded by saying that he wanted to minimize U.S. casualties. He said that he did not give the order to overthrow the Iraqi government because it would have "incurred incalculable human and political costs", adding, "We would have been forced to occupy Baghdad and, in effect, rule Iraq." General Colin Powell, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, referred to this as the "Pottery Barn Rule" after a chain store, with the idea being: "you break it, you own it." Bush did not want to own Iraq or have to serve as its military occupier.
The coalition victory had increased U.S. prestige abroad. Bush believed there was a window of opportunity to use the political capital generated by the coalition victory to revitalize the Arab-Israeli peace process. The administration immediately returned to Arab-Israeli peacemaking following the end of the Gulf War; this resulted in the Madrid Conference, later in 1991. This turned out to be overly optimistic, but was a noble effort.
This popularity was not enough to overcome one major political handicap: the economy. Bush had inherited large deficits left over from the Reagan years. The deficit had grown to $220 billion in 1990, and while that might seem like a pipe dream today, in 1990 it was three times its size from a decade earlier. Bush believed that it was important to lower the deficit, but had to do so with a Congress controlled by the Democratic Party. Bush believed that the best way to do this was to cut government spending. The congressional Democrats Bush had to contend with were convinced that the only way to do so was to raise taxes. Bush faced serious problems in building a consensus.
Bush could not strike a deal with the Democratic majority without including a tax increase. As a result, many Republicans felt betrayed because Bush had promised "no new taxes" in his 1988 campaign and accused him of breaking that promise. This led to a sharp decrease in his popularity. Bush would later say that he wished he had never signed the bill. Near the end of the 101st Congress, a compromise was reached on a budget package that increased the marginal tax rate and phased out exemptions for high-income taxpayers. Although he originally demanded a reduction in the capital gains tax, Bush gave in on this issue as well. This agreement with the Democratic leadership in Congress proved to be a turning point in the Bush presidency.
At the same time as the budget deal, America entered into a mild recession, lasting for six months. Many government programs, such as welfare, increased. The unemployment rate edged upward in 1991, and Bush signed a bill providing additional benefits for unemployed workers. In 1991 many corporate reorganizations led to the layoff of a substantial number of workers. Many of the unemployed had voted Republican as part of the "Reagan Revolution". By 1992, interest and inflation rates were the lowest in years, but by midyear the unemployment rate reached 7.8%, the highest since 1984. In September 1992, the Census Bureau reported that 14.2% of all Americans lived in poverty. Bush never regained his popularity after that, and in two separate polls taken in August and October of 1992, his approval rating sunk to 29%, just as he was fighting his re-election campaign.
In early 1992, Bush announced that he would seek a second term. A coalition victory in the Persian Gulf War and high approval ratings made re-election seem likely and as a result, many leading Democrats declined to seek their party's presidential nomination. Conservative political columnist Pat Buchanan challenged Bush for the Republican nomination. He surprised many by finishing second, with 37% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary.
Bush faced his Democratic challenger, Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, who recognized that the economy was Bush's Achilles heal. Clinton attacked Bush as a politician who was not doing enough to assist the working middle-class and being "out of touch" with the common man. Reporter Andrew Rosenthal's false report that Bush was "astonished" to see a demonstration of a supermarket scanner served to increase this perception. The Clinton campaign coined the slogan "it's the economy stupid" to underscore this message.
In early 1992, Texas billionaire H. Ross Perot launched a third party bid, claiming that neither Republicans nor Democrats could eliminate the deficit and make government more efficient. His message appealed to voters across the political spectrum disappointed with both parties' perceived fiscal irresponsibility. Perot later bowed out of the race for a short time, then reentered.
On Election Day neared, Clinton was victorious, winning 370 electoral votes to Bush's 168 votes. Perot won 19% of the popular vote, one of the highest totals for a third party candidate in U.S. history. The ailing economy was likely the main factor in Bush's loss. In Election Day exit polls, 7 in 10 voters said that the economy was either "not so good" or "poor" and on the eve of the day voters went to the polls, unemployment reports showed a jobless rate of 7.8% appeared (the highest since 1984). According to one survey, of voters who cited Bush's broken "No New Taxes" pledge as "very important", two thirds voted for Clinton.
Bush entered the Presidency with one of the most impressive resumes ever. He had a distinguished service record in the U. S. Navy, enlisting on his 18th birthday to become the youngest aviator in the U.S. Navy at the time. He survived having his plane was shot down, and continued to serv until the end of the war. He attended Yale University, graduating in 1948. He was captain of the school's baseball team and played in two College World Series. After college he moved his family to West Texas, where he entered the oil business and founded his own oil company. He was elected to the US House of Representatives in 1966. In 1971, President Richard Nixon appointed Bush as Ambassador to the United Nations, and in 1973 he became the Chairman of the Republican National Committee. The following year, President Gerald Ford appointed Bush as the ambassador to the People's Republic of China and later to the position of Director of Central Intelligence. Bush ran for president in 1980 but was defeated in the Republican primary by Ronald Reagan. Reagan chose Bush as his running mate, and Bush became vice president after the Reagan–Bush ticket won the 1980 election.
After serving two terms as Vice-President, Bush ran for President and sailed to victory by a margin of 426 to 111 in the electoral college. He became president during a time of tremendous change in the world. Early on into his presidency the Berlin Wall came down and in 1991 the Soviet Union broke into a number of smaller nations. It was the end of the Cold War.
It was the rapid conclusion of the First Gulf War that gave people confidence that Bush had world affairs under control. On August 2, 1990, Iraq, led by Saddam Hussein, invaded its oil-rich neighbor to the south, Kuwait. Bush condemned the invasion and began rallying international support against Iraq among European, Asian, and Middle Eastern allies. His Secretary of Defense, future Vice-President Dick Cheney, traveled to Saudi Arabia to meet with King Fahd, who requested US military aid from the US, fearing a possible invasion of his country as well.
Iraq made attempts to negotiate a deal that would allow the country to take control of half of Kuwait, but Bush rejected this proposal and insisted on a complete withdrawal of Iraqi forces. A military ground operation was planned September 1990, headed by General Norman Schwarzkopf and made of troops from a number of nations in the coalition, but mostly American and British servicemen. Bush spoke before a joint session of the U.S. Congress and set out four immediate objectives for the operation and a fifth long term objective:
"Iraq must withdraw from Kuwait completely, immediately, and without condition. Kuwait's legitimate government must be restored. The security and stability of the Persian Gulf must be assured. And American citizens abroad must be protected. Out of these troubled times, our fifth objective – a new world order – can emerge: a new era – freer from the threat of terror, stronger in the pursuit of justice, and more secure in the quest for peace. An era in which the nations of the world, East and West, North and South, can prosper and live in harmony, a world where the rule of law supplants the rule of the jungle. A world in which nations recognize the shared responsibility for freedom and justice. A world where the strong respect the rights of the weak."
With the United Nations Security Council having supported the efforts, Congress added its support and authorized the use of military force and set a goal of returning control of Kuwait to the Kuwaiti government, as well as protecting America's interests abroad.
Early on the morning of January 17, 1991, allied forces launched the first attack, which included over 4,000 bombing missions by coalition aircraft. This continued for the next four weeks, after which a ground invasion was launched on February 24, 1991. Allied forces penetrated Iraqi lines and pushed toward Kuwait City. On the west side of the country, the retreating Iraqi army was intercepted. The ground offensive took only around 100 hours. In polling results announced on February 28, 1991, Bush's approval rating soared to 89%, a mark that would be surpassed later by another President Bush.
Bush stopped short of sending troops to capture the Iraqi capital city of Baghdad. At the time some people criticized him for this, as hundreds of Iraqi forces were able to escape. Many felt that Saddam Hussein had not been properly held accountable for his actions. Bush responded by saying that he wanted to minimize U.S. casualties. He said that he did not give the order to overthrow the Iraqi government because it would have "incurred incalculable human and political costs", adding, "We would have been forced to occupy Baghdad and, in effect, rule Iraq." General Colin Powell, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, referred to this as the "Pottery Barn Rule" after a chain store, with the idea being: "you break it, you own it." Bush did not want to own Iraq or have to serve as its military occupier.
The coalition victory had increased U.S. prestige abroad. Bush believed there was a window of opportunity to use the political capital generated by the coalition victory to revitalize the Arab-Israeli peace process. The administration immediately returned to Arab-Israeli peacemaking following the end of the Gulf War; this resulted in the Madrid Conference, later in 1991. This turned out to be overly optimistic, but was a noble effort.
This popularity was not enough to overcome one major political handicap: the economy. Bush had inherited large deficits left over from the Reagan years. The deficit had grown to $220 billion in 1990, and while that might seem like a pipe dream today, in 1990 it was three times its size from a decade earlier. Bush believed that it was important to lower the deficit, but had to do so with a Congress controlled by the Democratic Party. Bush believed that the best way to do this was to cut government spending. The congressional Democrats Bush had to contend with were convinced that the only way to do so was to raise taxes. Bush faced serious problems in building a consensus.
Bush could not strike a deal with the Democratic majority without including a tax increase. As a result, many Republicans felt betrayed because Bush had promised "no new taxes" in his 1988 campaign and accused him of breaking that promise. This led to a sharp decrease in his popularity. Bush would later say that he wished he had never signed the bill. Near the end of the 101st Congress, a compromise was reached on a budget package that increased the marginal tax rate and phased out exemptions for high-income taxpayers. Although he originally demanded a reduction in the capital gains tax, Bush gave in on this issue as well. This agreement with the Democratic leadership in Congress proved to be a turning point in the Bush presidency.
At the same time as the budget deal, America entered into a mild recession, lasting for six months. Many government programs, such as welfare, increased. The unemployment rate edged upward in 1991, and Bush signed a bill providing additional benefits for unemployed workers. In 1991 many corporate reorganizations led to the layoff of a substantial number of workers. Many of the unemployed had voted Republican as part of the "Reagan Revolution". By 1992, interest and inflation rates were the lowest in years, but by midyear the unemployment rate reached 7.8%, the highest since 1984. In September 1992, the Census Bureau reported that 14.2% of all Americans lived in poverty. Bush never regained his popularity after that, and in two separate polls taken in August and October of 1992, his approval rating sunk to 29%, just as he was fighting his re-election campaign.
In early 1992, Bush announced that he would seek a second term. A coalition victory in the Persian Gulf War and high approval ratings made re-election seem likely and as a result, many leading Democrats declined to seek their party's presidential nomination. Conservative political columnist Pat Buchanan challenged Bush for the Republican nomination. He surprised many by finishing second, with 37% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary.
Bush faced his Democratic challenger, Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, who recognized that the economy was Bush's Achilles heal. Clinton attacked Bush as a politician who was not doing enough to assist the working middle-class and being "out of touch" with the common man. Reporter Andrew Rosenthal's false report that Bush was "astonished" to see a demonstration of a supermarket scanner served to increase this perception. The Clinton campaign coined the slogan "it's the economy stupid" to underscore this message.
In early 1992, Texas billionaire H. Ross Perot launched a third party bid, claiming that neither Republicans nor Democrats could eliminate the deficit and make government more efficient. His message appealed to voters across the political spectrum disappointed with both parties' perceived fiscal irresponsibility. Perot later bowed out of the race for a short time, then reentered.
On Election Day neared, Clinton was victorious, winning 370 electoral votes to Bush's 168 votes. Perot won 19% of the popular vote, one of the highest totals for a third party candidate in U.S. history. The ailing economy was likely the main factor in Bush's loss. In Election Day exit polls, 7 in 10 voters said that the economy was either "not so good" or "poor" and on the eve of the day voters went to the polls, unemployment reports showed a jobless rate of 7.8% appeared (the highest since 1984). According to one survey, of voters who cited Bush's broken "No New Taxes" pledge as "very important", two thirds voted for Clinton.