Presidential Highs and Lows: Franklin Delano Roosevelt
In 1937, the famous pollster George Gallup began to formally measure to what degree members of the American public approved or disapproved of the job that their president was doing. Gallup was a journalist from Iowa who is considered to be the best-known pioneer of survey sampling techniques. He created what became known as the Gallup poll, a statistical method of survey sampling for measuring public opinion. In 1932, Gallup did some experimental polling for his mother-in-law, Ola Babcock Miller. She was a candidate in the race to become Iowa's Secretary of State. She was considered to be a long-shot to win the position, but she won a surprise victory in a Democratic landslide that year. Gallup does not get credit for her victory, but this event is said to have advanced Gallup's interest in politics.
Gallup formed his own polling company, the American Institute of Public Opinion, in 1935. In 1936, Gallup achieved national attention by correctly predicting, from a sample of only 50,000 respondents, that Franklin Delano Roosevelt would defeat Alf Landon in that year's Presidential election. This was in direct contradiction to the widely respected Literary Digest magazine whose poll based on over two million returned questionnaires predicted that Landon would be the winner. Not only did Gallup get the election right, he correctly predicted the results of the Literary Digest poll and was able to articulate why their methods were flawed.
Gallup began to measure presidential job approval ratings in 1937. He wanted to gauge public support for the President of the United States during his term. The president's approval rating was calculated as a percentage determined by a polling showing the percentage of respondents to an opinion poll who approve of a particular president's performance in office. An approval rating is given based on responses to a poll in which a sample of people are asked whether they approve or disapprove of that particular president or other political figure. A typical question respondents are asked is: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way [name of president] is handling his job as president?" The approval rating is generally accepted as a statistically valid indicator of the comparative changes in the popular United States mood regarding a president.
In the time that it was measured in this fashion, Franklin Delano Roosevelt's popularity ranged from a high of 83%, on January 8, 1942, to a low of 48 on August 8, 1939. In the case of his low point, Roosevelt miscalculated his plan to take on the United States Supreme Court, after the court struck down pieces of his New Deal Legislation. The Supreme Court had overturned many of Roosevelt's programs, including the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) of 1933. NIRA's goal was to forcing industries to establish rules of operation for all firms within specific industries, such as minimum prices, agreements not to compete, and production restrictions. Industry leaders negotiated the rules, which were approved by NIRA officials. Industry needed to raise wages as a condition for approval. The conservative majority of the court struck down numerous economic regulations on the basis of freedom of contract.
In 1937, Roosevelt proposed the Judicial Procedures Reform Bill, which would have allowed him to appoint an additional Justice for each incumbent Justice over the age of 70. In 1937, there were six Supreme Court Justices over the age of 70. The size of the Court had been set at nine since the passage of the Judiciary Act of 1869. The scheme became known as Roosevelt's "court packing" plan. It ran into intense political opposition, including from within his own party. Vice President John Nance Garner argued that the plan upset the separation of powers. A bipartisan coalition of liberals and conservatives of both parties opposed the bill, and Chief Justice Charles Evans Hughes publicly called for the defeat of the bill.
Although he didn't get his legislation passed, the Court began to take a more favorable view of economic regulations. In 1938 Roosevelt appointed a Supreme Court Justice for the first time, and by 1941, eight of the nine Justices were Roosevelt appointees. Four of Roosevelt's Supreme Court appointees, Felix Frankfurter, Robert H. Jackson, Hugo Black, and William O. Douglas, were influential in re-shaping the direction of the Court.
After the failure of the Judicial Procedures Reform Bill of 1937, Roosevelt's popularity began to decline as conservative Democrats joined with Republicans to block the implementation of further New Deal programs. Roosevelt did manage to pass some legislation, including the Housing Act of 1937, a second Agricultural Adjustment Act, and the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) of 1938. The last-mentioned law is considered to be the last major piece of New Deal legislation. The FLSA outlawed child labor, established a federal minimum wage, and required overtime pay for certain employees who work in excess of forty-hours per week.
The economy began to deteriorate again in late 1937, and Roosevelt asked Congress for $5 billion in relief and public works funding. This managed to eventually create as many as 3.3 million jobs by 1938. Angered by the opposition of conservative Democrats in Congress, Roosevelt became involved in the 1938 Democratic primaries, actively campaigning for challengers who were more supportive of New Deal reform. This was another political mistake. Roosevelt's efforts only led to the defeat of one target, a conservative Democrat from New York City. In the November 1938 elections, Democrats lost six Senate seats and 71 House seats, with losses were concentrated among pro-New Deal Democrats. When Congress reconvened in 1939, Republicans under Senator Robert Taft formed a Conservative coalition with Southern Democrats. This led to a low point in Roosevelt's popularity and in his ability to enact his domestic proposals.
Despite the drop in popularity, Roosevelt did manage to win re-election to an unprecedented third term in 1940, largely because Americans believed that his experienced leadership was necessary with the war that had broken out in Europe. The Fall of France in June 1940 shocked American opinion, and isolationist sentiment declined. Both parties gave support to Roosevelt's plans for a rapid build-up of the American military, even as isolationists warned that Roosevelt would get the nation into an unnecessary war with Germany. Ironically, many of the conservatives in Congress who had opposed FDR's New Deal programs now supported his wartime policies. In July 1940, a group of Congressmen introduced a bill that would authorize the nation's first peacetime draft, and with the support of the Roosevelt administration the Selective Training and Service Act of 1940 passed in September. The size of the army would increase from 189,000 men at the end of 1939 to 1.4 million men in mid-1941. In September 1940, Roosevelt openly defied the Neutrality Acts by reaching the Destroyers for Bases Agreement, which, in exchange for military base rights in the British Caribbean Islands, gave 50 WWI American destroyers to Britain.
Roosevelt's popularity surged in September following the announcement of the Destroyers for Bases Agreement. It helped that his opponent in the 1940 election, Republican Wendell Willkie, supported much of the New Deal policies, as well as the idea of giving aid to Britain. Roosevelt won the 1940 election with 55% of the popular vote, 38 of the 48 states, and almost 85% of the electoral vote.
But it was the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor December 7, 1941, that led to a surge in public support for the president. On that day the Japanese struck the U.S. naval base at Pearl Harbor with a surprise attack, knocking out the main American battleship fleet and killing 2,403 American servicemen and civilians. Japanese forces also attacked Thailand, British Hong Kong, the Philippines, and other targets. Roosevelt called for war in his "Day of Infamy Speech" to Congress, in which he famously said: "Yesterday, December 7, 1941 — a date which will live in infamy — the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of Japan." In a nearly-unanimous vote, Congress declared war on Japan. After the Japanese attack at Pearl Harbor, antiwar sentiment in the United States largely evaporated overnight. On December 11, 1941, Germany and Italy also declared war on the United States.
In late December 1941 Churchill and Roosevelt met at the Arcadia Conference, which established a joint strategy between the U.S. and Britain. On January 1, 1942, the United States, Britain, China, the Soviet Union, and twenty-two other countries issued the Declaration by United Nations, in which each nation pledged to defeat the Axis powers. It was at this time that Gallup's numbers showed Roosevelt at his highest approval rating. The nation rallied behind its president, giving him their support as it went to war.
Gallup formed his own polling company, the American Institute of Public Opinion, in 1935. In 1936, Gallup achieved national attention by correctly predicting, from a sample of only 50,000 respondents, that Franklin Delano Roosevelt would defeat Alf Landon in that year's Presidential election. This was in direct contradiction to the widely respected Literary Digest magazine whose poll based on over two million returned questionnaires predicted that Landon would be the winner. Not only did Gallup get the election right, he correctly predicted the results of the Literary Digest poll and was able to articulate why their methods were flawed.
Gallup began to measure presidential job approval ratings in 1937. He wanted to gauge public support for the President of the United States during his term. The president's approval rating was calculated as a percentage determined by a polling showing the percentage of respondents to an opinion poll who approve of a particular president's performance in office. An approval rating is given based on responses to a poll in which a sample of people are asked whether they approve or disapprove of that particular president or other political figure. A typical question respondents are asked is: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way [name of president] is handling his job as president?" The approval rating is generally accepted as a statistically valid indicator of the comparative changes in the popular United States mood regarding a president.
In the time that it was measured in this fashion, Franklin Delano Roosevelt's popularity ranged from a high of 83%, on January 8, 1942, to a low of 48 on August 8, 1939. In the case of his low point, Roosevelt miscalculated his plan to take on the United States Supreme Court, after the court struck down pieces of his New Deal Legislation. The Supreme Court had overturned many of Roosevelt's programs, including the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) of 1933. NIRA's goal was to forcing industries to establish rules of operation for all firms within specific industries, such as minimum prices, agreements not to compete, and production restrictions. Industry leaders negotiated the rules, which were approved by NIRA officials. Industry needed to raise wages as a condition for approval. The conservative majority of the court struck down numerous economic regulations on the basis of freedom of contract.
In 1937, Roosevelt proposed the Judicial Procedures Reform Bill, which would have allowed him to appoint an additional Justice for each incumbent Justice over the age of 70. In 1937, there were six Supreme Court Justices over the age of 70. The size of the Court had been set at nine since the passage of the Judiciary Act of 1869. The scheme became known as Roosevelt's "court packing" plan. It ran into intense political opposition, including from within his own party. Vice President John Nance Garner argued that the plan upset the separation of powers. A bipartisan coalition of liberals and conservatives of both parties opposed the bill, and Chief Justice Charles Evans Hughes publicly called for the defeat of the bill.
Although he didn't get his legislation passed, the Court began to take a more favorable view of economic regulations. In 1938 Roosevelt appointed a Supreme Court Justice for the first time, and by 1941, eight of the nine Justices were Roosevelt appointees. Four of Roosevelt's Supreme Court appointees, Felix Frankfurter, Robert H. Jackson, Hugo Black, and William O. Douglas, were influential in re-shaping the direction of the Court.
After the failure of the Judicial Procedures Reform Bill of 1937, Roosevelt's popularity began to decline as conservative Democrats joined with Republicans to block the implementation of further New Deal programs. Roosevelt did manage to pass some legislation, including the Housing Act of 1937, a second Agricultural Adjustment Act, and the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) of 1938. The last-mentioned law is considered to be the last major piece of New Deal legislation. The FLSA outlawed child labor, established a federal minimum wage, and required overtime pay for certain employees who work in excess of forty-hours per week.
The economy began to deteriorate again in late 1937, and Roosevelt asked Congress for $5 billion in relief and public works funding. This managed to eventually create as many as 3.3 million jobs by 1938. Angered by the opposition of conservative Democrats in Congress, Roosevelt became involved in the 1938 Democratic primaries, actively campaigning for challengers who were more supportive of New Deal reform. This was another political mistake. Roosevelt's efforts only led to the defeat of one target, a conservative Democrat from New York City. In the November 1938 elections, Democrats lost six Senate seats and 71 House seats, with losses were concentrated among pro-New Deal Democrats. When Congress reconvened in 1939, Republicans under Senator Robert Taft formed a Conservative coalition with Southern Democrats. This led to a low point in Roosevelt's popularity and in his ability to enact his domestic proposals.
Despite the drop in popularity, Roosevelt did manage to win re-election to an unprecedented third term in 1940, largely because Americans believed that his experienced leadership was necessary with the war that had broken out in Europe. The Fall of France in June 1940 shocked American opinion, and isolationist sentiment declined. Both parties gave support to Roosevelt's plans for a rapid build-up of the American military, even as isolationists warned that Roosevelt would get the nation into an unnecessary war with Germany. Ironically, many of the conservatives in Congress who had opposed FDR's New Deal programs now supported his wartime policies. In July 1940, a group of Congressmen introduced a bill that would authorize the nation's first peacetime draft, and with the support of the Roosevelt administration the Selective Training and Service Act of 1940 passed in September. The size of the army would increase from 189,000 men at the end of 1939 to 1.4 million men in mid-1941. In September 1940, Roosevelt openly defied the Neutrality Acts by reaching the Destroyers for Bases Agreement, which, in exchange for military base rights in the British Caribbean Islands, gave 50 WWI American destroyers to Britain.
Roosevelt's popularity surged in September following the announcement of the Destroyers for Bases Agreement. It helped that his opponent in the 1940 election, Republican Wendell Willkie, supported much of the New Deal policies, as well as the idea of giving aid to Britain. Roosevelt won the 1940 election with 55% of the popular vote, 38 of the 48 states, and almost 85% of the electoral vote.
But it was the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor December 7, 1941, that led to a surge in public support for the president. On that day the Japanese struck the U.S. naval base at Pearl Harbor with a surprise attack, knocking out the main American battleship fleet and killing 2,403 American servicemen and civilians. Japanese forces also attacked Thailand, British Hong Kong, the Philippines, and other targets. Roosevelt called for war in his "Day of Infamy Speech" to Congress, in which he famously said: "Yesterday, December 7, 1941 — a date which will live in infamy — the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of Japan." In a nearly-unanimous vote, Congress declared war on Japan. After the Japanese attack at Pearl Harbor, antiwar sentiment in the United States largely evaporated overnight. On December 11, 1941, Germany and Italy also declared war on the United States.
In late December 1941 Churchill and Roosevelt met at the Arcadia Conference, which established a joint strategy between the U.S. and Britain. On January 1, 1942, the United States, Britain, China, the Soviet Union, and twenty-two other countries issued the Declaration by United Nations, in which each nation pledged to defeat the Axis powers. It was at this time that Gallup's numbers showed Roosevelt at his highest approval rating. The nation rallied behind its president, giving him their support as it went to war.