October Surprises: 1916-Wilson vs. Hughes
A century ago in 1916, Democrat Woodrow Wilson was running for re-election as President. Four years previously, he had ended a four election string of White House victories for the Republicans, largely from being the beneficiary of a split in the GOP. Incumbent President William Howard Taft and his predecessor, Theodore Roosevelt split the Republican vote, with Roosevelt running as the candidate for the Progressive Party (also known as the "Bull Moose" Party), supported by the progressives in the Republican ranks. Taft ran as the party's official candidate, but his support came from the conservative wing of the party. When the votes were counted on election day in 1912, Wilson won handily, with Taft finishing a distant third.
Four years later, the Republican had seen the folly of their ways and wisely realized that the only was to defeat Wilson was to put up a united front. Roosevelt was largely responsible for healing the party schism, as he declined to run for the Progressive Party and instead backed the Republian nominee for President, Supreme Court Justice Charles Evans Hughes, who had been serving on the court since 1910. Hughes had been out of politics for six years and therefore had not offended anyone in the last election. He won the nomination on the third ballot. Former Vice-President Charles W. Fairbanks was nominated as his running mate. Hughes was the only Supreme Court Justice to be nominated for president by a major political party.
That Hughes ended up losing the election was not so much due to an October surprise, as it was to an October mistake. Although the Progressive Party nominated Roosevelt as their candidate, he telegraphed the convention and declared that he could not accept the nomination and would be endorsing Republican nominee Hughes for the Presidency. Wilson and the Democrats ran their campaign around the slogan, "He Kept Us out of War". A world war had broken out in Europe in 1914 and Roosevelt and others in the Republican Party wanted to see the United States enter the war on the side of the allies, as they eventually did in 1917. But Wilson resisted having the nation join in the war. He said that a Republican victory would result in a two-front war with both Mexico and Germany. Hughes downplayed the issue of the war and instead campaigned on a program of greater mobilization and preparedness. There was not a common consensus in the country on whether or not America should go to war. On the one hand, many Americans came to see the Germans Empire as the villain in the war, following news of atrocities committed by the Germans in Belgium in 1914, and the sinking of the passenger liner RMS Lusitania in May of 1915. On the other hand, many German-Americans did not want to see their new country go to war against their mother country, and many Irish-Americans were not in support of aiding the British.
Wilson appeared to have been successful in persuading the Germans to suspend unrestricted submarine warfare. Hughes criticized Wilson for his military interventions in Mexico, where the U.S. was supporting various factions in the Mexican civil war. Hughes also attacked Wilson for his support of various "pro-labor" laws, such as limiting the workday to eight hours. He argued that this was harmful to business interests. This did not sit well with progressives in both parties, but Hughes was helped by securing the unwavering support of Theodore Roosevelt, and by the fact that the Republicans were still the nation's majority party, and this time they were uniting behind one candidate.
But in October, Hughes made a key mistake while campaigning in California in October, just prior to the election. Hughes made a campaign swing through the state, but he would not meet with the powerful Republican Governor Hiram Johnson. Johnson was a progressive and in 1912 he was Roosevelt's running mate on the Progressive Party ticket. Johnson was very popular in his state and he mistrusted Hughes, who he viewed as more aligned with the party's conservative wing. When Hughes refused to mend this fence by meeting with Johnson and seeking his support, Johnson took this as a snub and never gave Hughes his full endorsement. As it turned out, California had enough electoral votes by this time to tip the balance in the election. It had elected Johnson as its Governor and later as its Senator because of his progressive leanings, and as between Hughes and Wilson, Wilson was generally viewed as the more progressive of the two candidates. Johnson's support and endorsement was seen as crucial to winning California for the Republicans. But Hughes believed that he did not need Johnson's endorsement and that the Republicans would win California without the Governor's help. He was almost correct about that.
Going into the election, Wilson was not optimistic about his chances for victory. With the war raging in Europe, Wilson thought that if he lost the election it would be better for his opponent to begin his administration straight away, instead of waiting until inauguration day, which at that time wasn't until March. Wilson came up with a plan to use the order of presidential succession so that Hughes could take over the Presidency as soon as the result of the election was clear. The plan was for Wilson to appoint Hughes to the post of Secretary of State. Wilson and Vice President Marshall would then resign. At the time, the Secretary of State was next in the line of succession to the presidency, so Hughes would become President immediately upon the resignation of Wilson and Marshall. But as things turned out, Wilson won re-election, so the plan was never needed.
The result was exceptionally close and the outcome remained in doubt for several days, partially because of the wait for returns from California. Without California, Wilson had won 29 states and 264 electoral votes. Hughes had won 18 states and 254 electoral votes. Whoever won California would become President. The electoral vote was one of the closest in U.S. history. When California's votes were finally tallied, Wilson received 466,289 votes (46.65%) and Hughes received 462,516 votes (46.27%). With the win, Wilson took 30 states for 277 electoral votes, while Hughes won 18 states and 254 electoral votes.
According to a story told about the 1916 election, Charles Evans Hughes went to bed on election night believing that he was the newly elected president. When a reporter tried to telephone him the next morning to get his reaction to Wilson's comeback, his butler answered the phone and told the reporter that "the president is asleep". The reporter replied, "When he wakes up, tell him he isn't the president."
Four years later, the Republican had seen the folly of their ways and wisely realized that the only was to defeat Wilson was to put up a united front. Roosevelt was largely responsible for healing the party schism, as he declined to run for the Progressive Party and instead backed the Republian nominee for President, Supreme Court Justice Charles Evans Hughes, who had been serving on the court since 1910. Hughes had been out of politics for six years and therefore had not offended anyone in the last election. He won the nomination on the third ballot. Former Vice-President Charles W. Fairbanks was nominated as his running mate. Hughes was the only Supreme Court Justice to be nominated for president by a major political party.
That Hughes ended up losing the election was not so much due to an October surprise, as it was to an October mistake. Although the Progressive Party nominated Roosevelt as their candidate, he telegraphed the convention and declared that he could not accept the nomination and would be endorsing Republican nominee Hughes for the Presidency. Wilson and the Democrats ran their campaign around the slogan, "He Kept Us out of War". A world war had broken out in Europe in 1914 and Roosevelt and others in the Republican Party wanted to see the United States enter the war on the side of the allies, as they eventually did in 1917. But Wilson resisted having the nation join in the war. He said that a Republican victory would result in a two-front war with both Mexico and Germany. Hughes downplayed the issue of the war and instead campaigned on a program of greater mobilization and preparedness. There was not a common consensus in the country on whether or not America should go to war. On the one hand, many Americans came to see the Germans Empire as the villain in the war, following news of atrocities committed by the Germans in Belgium in 1914, and the sinking of the passenger liner RMS Lusitania in May of 1915. On the other hand, many German-Americans did not want to see their new country go to war against their mother country, and many Irish-Americans were not in support of aiding the British.
Wilson appeared to have been successful in persuading the Germans to suspend unrestricted submarine warfare. Hughes criticized Wilson for his military interventions in Mexico, where the U.S. was supporting various factions in the Mexican civil war. Hughes also attacked Wilson for his support of various "pro-labor" laws, such as limiting the workday to eight hours. He argued that this was harmful to business interests. This did not sit well with progressives in both parties, but Hughes was helped by securing the unwavering support of Theodore Roosevelt, and by the fact that the Republicans were still the nation's majority party, and this time they were uniting behind one candidate.
But in October, Hughes made a key mistake while campaigning in California in October, just prior to the election. Hughes made a campaign swing through the state, but he would not meet with the powerful Republican Governor Hiram Johnson. Johnson was a progressive and in 1912 he was Roosevelt's running mate on the Progressive Party ticket. Johnson was very popular in his state and he mistrusted Hughes, who he viewed as more aligned with the party's conservative wing. When Hughes refused to mend this fence by meeting with Johnson and seeking his support, Johnson took this as a snub and never gave Hughes his full endorsement. As it turned out, California had enough electoral votes by this time to tip the balance in the election. It had elected Johnson as its Governor and later as its Senator because of his progressive leanings, and as between Hughes and Wilson, Wilson was generally viewed as the more progressive of the two candidates. Johnson's support and endorsement was seen as crucial to winning California for the Republicans. But Hughes believed that he did not need Johnson's endorsement and that the Republicans would win California without the Governor's help. He was almost correct about that.
Going into the election, Wilson was not optimistic about his chances for victory. With the war raging in Europe, Wilson thought that if he lost the election it would be better for his opponent to begin his administration straight away, instead of waiting until inauguration day, which at that time wasn't until March. Wilson came up with a plan to use the order of presidential succession so that Hughes could take over the Presidency as soon as the result of the election was clear. The plan was for Wilson to appoint Hughes to the post of Secretary of State. Wilson and Vice President Marshall would then resign. At the time, the Secretary of State was next in the line of succession to the presidency, so Hughes would become President immediately upon the resignation of Wilson and Marshall. But as things turned out, Wilson won re-election, so the plan was never needed.
The result was exceptionally close and the outcome remained in doubt for several days, partially because of the wait for returns from California. Without California, Wilson had won 29 states and 264 electoral votes. Hughes had won 18 states and 254 electoral votes. Whoever won California would become President. The electoral vote was one of the closest in U.S. history. When California's votes were finally tallied, Wilson received 466,289 votes (46.65%) and Hughes received 462,516 votes (46.27%). With the win, Wilson took 30 states for 277 electoral votes, while Hughes won 18 states and 254 electoral votes.
According to a story told about the 1916 election, Charles Evans Hughes went to bed on election night believing that he was the newly elected president. When a reporter tried to telephone him the next morning to get his reaction to Wilson's comeback, his butler answered the phone and told the reporter that "the president is asleep". The reporter replied, "When he wakes up, tell him he isn't the president."