The Making of the President 2016: Part 19-After the Conventions
Immediately after each party's convention, each of the two major candidates received a bump in the polls. On July 26th, Trump led Clinton by over a full percentage point in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) consolidated polling numbers, with the 45.7% for Trump and 44.6% for Clinton. But a month later, on August 26th, Clinton was enjoying a lead of 48.4% to 42.1. The polling numbers have since narrowed, and as of this posting they stand at 47.5% for Clinton to 45% for Trump. The same website puts 201 electoral votes in Clinton's column, 165 for Trump, but 172 in the "too close to call" category. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Pollster Nate Silver in his website fivethirtyeight.com (so named because there are five hundred and thirty-eight electoral college votes) forecasts that Clinton currently has a 66.8% of winning the presidency, while Trump's odds are at 33.2%. It must be emphasized that, given the fluctuation that has been seen in the polls this far, support for both candidates is soft and subject to change.
Since the conventions both candidates have had moments of controversy. For Trump, he has been accused of seeking support based on racist motivations. On July 22, 2016, the day after Trump's nomination, white supremacist David Duke said, "I'm overjoyed to see Donald Trump and most Americans embrace most of the issues that I've championed for years." A spokesperson for the Trump campaign said that Trump "has disavowed David Duke and will continue to do so." On August 25, 2016, Hillary Clinton gave a speech in which she said accused Trump of "taking hate groups mainstream and helping a radical fringe take over the Republican Party." On September 9, 2016, several leaders of the alt-right community, a group opposed to immigration, held a press conference, at which speakers called for a "White Homeland" and confirmed their support of Trump, saying "This is what a leader looks like." Richard Spencer, of the white nationalist National Policy Institute, said "Before Trump, our identity ideas, national ideas, they had no place to go".
Another controversial issue for Trump has been gun control. At a campaign stop in Wilmington, North Carolina, on August 9, Trump said that Hillary Clinton wants to "essentially abolish the Second Amendment." He told his audience that if she nominates judges to the Supreme Court, there would be nothing that could be done about it, and then added, "Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is. I don't know." Trump's comment sparked condemnation from various Democrats and Republicans for being perceived as suggesting violence against Clinton. House Speaker Paul Ryan said Trump should clarify what he meant by the remarks. Clinton responded to Trump's comments by saying, "words matter," and that Trump's comments were part of a long line of casual comments from Trump that had "crossed a line."
During the 2016 Democratic National Convention, one of the speakers was Khizr Khan, a Muslim U.S. citizen who immigrated from Pakistan in 1980. Khan is the father of Captain Humayun Khan, a U.S. soldier who was killed in Iraq in 2004 by a suicide bomber, and later awarded the Bronze Star Medal and a Purple Heart. At the convention, Khan spoke and criticized Trump for his Muslim ban proposals, asking if Trump had ever read the U.S. Constitution, and offering to give him a copy. The following Sunday on ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos, Trump said that Khan was, "you know, very emotional and probably looked like a nice guy to me." Trump questioned why Khan's wife Ghazala, who stood silently by her husband's side during his speech, did not speak and speculated that she might not have been allowed to speak. When Trump was asked what he has sacrificed for his country, he told Stephanopoulos, "I think I've made a lot of sacrifices. I work very, very hard. I've created thousands and thousands of jobs, tens of thousands of jobs, built great structures. I've had tremendous success. I think I've done a lot." Trump also cited his work on behalf of veterans, including helping build a Vietnam War memorial in Manhattan and raising "millions of dollars" for veterans.
A Fox News poll found that 69 percent of respondents who were familiar with Trump's comments, including 41 percent of Republicans, felt that Trump's response was "out of bounds". The Khan controversy was believed to have contributed to significant drops in Trump's poll numbers that week.
Trump has not released his personal income tax returns, as nominees traditionally do, and has said he does not plan to do so before the November election. If he does not doi so, he would become the first major party nominee since 1976 not to make his tax returns public. Before declaring for president he said he would "absolutely" release them if he decided to run for office, but since then, he has offered various reasons for not giving out the information. He says that his lawyers told him not to release the returns because they are being audited. The current top IRS official, Commissioner John Koskinen, has said that it would be fine for Trump to release his returns during an audit.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton's poll numbers appeared to drop after concerns about her health were raised following a fainting spell in September, when Clinton developed pneumonia. After leaving a 9/11 commemoration ceremony early, she spent three days recovering at home, canceling several campaign events, before returning to the campaign trail at a rally at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro. Clinton released supplementary health records from her physician, Dr. Bardack, who found that she had "a mild non-contagious bacterial pneumonia" and had recovered well with antibiotics and rest. Dr. Bardack wrote: "She continues to remain healthy and fit to serve as President of the United States."
Clinton continues to deal with allegations concerning her practice of using her own private email address and server during her time as Secretary of State, in lieu of State Department servers. Concerns were raised about security and preservation of emails, and the possibility that laws may have been violated. Nearly 2,100 emails contained in Clinton's server were determined to be classified when the state department had an opportunity to review them. According to Clinton they were not marked classified at the time she handled them. 65 emails were found to contain information classified as "Secret", more than 20 contained "Top-Secret" information, and the rest contained "Confidential" information.After allegations were raised that some of the emails in question fell into this so-called "born classified" category, an FBI probe was initiated regarding how classified information was handled on the Clinton server. The probe was concluded on July 5, 2016 with a recommendation of no charges, a decision that was followed by the Justice Department.
On September 26, 2016, Clinton and Trump met for their first presidential debate, which will be the subject of tomorrow's post in this series.
Pollster Nate Silver in his website fivethirtyeight.com (so named because there are five hundred and thirty-eight electoral college votes) forecasts that Clinton currently has a 66.8% of winning the presidency, while Trump's odds are at 33.2%. It must be emphasized that, given the fluctuation that has been seen in the polls this far, support for both candidates is soft and subject to change.
Since the conventions both candidates have had moments of controversy. For Trump, he has been accused of seeking support based on racist motivations. On July 22, 2016, the day after Trump's nomination, white supremacist David Duke said, "I'm overjoyed to see Donald Trump and most Americans embrace most of the issues that I've championed for years." A spokesperson for the Trump campaign said that Trump "has disavowed David Duke and will continue to do so." On August 25, 2016, Hillary Clinton gave a speech in which she said accused Trump of "taking hate groups mainstream and helping a radical fringe take over the Republican Party." On September 9, 2016, several leaders of the alt-right community, a group opposed to immigration, held a press conference, at which speakers called for a "White Homeland" and confirmed their support of Trump, saying "This is what a leader looks like." Richard Spencer, of the white nationalist National Policy Institute, said "Before Trump, our identity ideas, national ideas, they had no place to go".
Another controversial issue for Trump has been gun control. At a campaign stop in Wilmington, North Carolina, on August 9, Trump said that Hillary Clinton wants to "essentially abolish the Second Amendment." He told his audience that if she nominates judges to the Supreme Court, there would be nothing that could be done about it, and then added, "Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is. I don't know." Trump's comment sparked condemnation from various Democrats and Republicans for being perceived as suggesting violence against Clinton. House Speaker Paul Ryan said Trump should clarify what he meant by the remarks. Clinton responded to Trump's comments by saying, "words matter," and that Trump's comments were part of a long line of casual comments from Trump that had "crossed a line."
During the 2016 Democratic National Convention, one of the speakers was Khizr Khan, a Muslim U.S. citizen who immigrated from Pakistan in 1980. Khan is the father of Captain Humayun Khan, a U.S. soldier who was killed in Iraq in 2004 by a suicide bomber, and later awarded the Bronze Star Medal and a Purple Heart. At the convention, Khan spoke and criticized Trump for his Muslim ban proposals, asking if Trump had ever read the U.S. Constitution, and offering to give him a copy. The following Sunday on ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos, Trump said that Khan was, "you know, very emotional and probably looked like a nice guy to me." Trump questioned why Khan's wife Ghazala, who stood silently by her husband's side during his speech, did not speak and speculated that she might not have been allowed to speak. When Trump was asked what he has sacrificed for his country, he told Stephanopoulos, "I think I've made a lot of sacrifices. I work very, very hard. I've created thousands and thousands of jobs, tens of thousands of jobs, built great structures. I've had tremendous success. I think I've done a lot." Trump also cited his work on behalf of veterans, including helping build a Vietnam War memorial in Manhattan and raising "millions of dollars" for veterans.
A Fox News poll found that 69 percent of respondents who were familiar with Trump's comments, including 41 percent of Republicans, felt that Trump's response was "out of bounds". The Khan controversy was believed to have contributed to significant drops in Trump's poll numbers that week.
Trump has not released his personal income tax returns, as nominees traditionally do, and has said he does not plan to do so before the November election. If he does not doi so, he would become the first major party nominee since 1976 not to make his tax returns public. Before declaring for president he said he would "absolutely" release them if he decided to run for office, but since then, he has offered various reasons for not giving out the information. He says that his lawyers told him not to release the returns because they are being audited. The current top IRS official, Commissioner John Koskinen, has said that it would be fine for Trump to release his returns during an audit.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton's poll numbers appeared to drop after concerns about her health were raised following a fainting spell in September, when Clinton developed pneumonia. After leaving a 9/11 commemoration ceremony early, she spent three days recovering at home, canceling several campaign events, before returning to the campaign trail at a rally at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro. Clinton released supplementary health records from her physician, Dr. Bardack, who found that she had "a mild non-contagious bacterial pneumonia" and had recovered well with antibiotics and rest. Dr. Bardack wrote: "She continues to remain healthy and fit to serve as President of the United States."
Clinton continues to deal with allegations concerning her practice of using her own private email address and server during her time as Secretary of State, in lieu of State Department servers. Concerns were raised about security and preservation of emails, and the possibility that laws may have been violated. Nearly 2,100 emails contained in Clinton's server were determined to be classified when the state department had an opportunity to review them. According to Clinton they were not marked classified at the time she handled them. 65 emails were found to contain information classified as "Secret", more than 20 contained "Top-Secret" information, and the rest contained "Confidential" information.After allegations were raised that some of the emails in question fell into this so-called "born classified" category, an FBI probe was initiated regarding how classified information was handled on the Clinton server. The probe was concluded on July 5, 2016 with a recommendation of no charges, a decision that was followed by the Justice Department.
On September 26, 2016, Clinton and Trump met for their first presidential debate, which will be the subject of tomorrow's post in this series.