geeky
It looked as if the time was right for the Republican Party to regain control of the White House. The Democrats faced significant splits with those on the left leaving the party to support former Vice-President Henry Wallace, and those in the deep south supporting "Dixiecrat" Strom Thurmond. Truman had also alienated many in the labor movement. But there was still one variable and that was whether or the popular General Dwight Eisenhower would run for president, and if so, for what party?
Eisenhower emerged from the war as the most popular general of World War II and was a constant favorite in the polls. A "draft Ike" movement came from the grassroots of the Republican party and by January 23, 1948, those promoting Eisenhower had successfully entered their man's name into every state holding a Republican presidential primary. Polls gave him a significant lead against all other contenders. As the first state primary approached, Eisenhower had to make up his mind about what his plans were. He decided not to run, stating that soldiers should stay out of politics. After a number of failed attempts to get Eisenhower to reconsider, the draft Ike movement died.
Eisenhower's refusal to run opened up the door to a number of other hopefuls including Minnesota Governor Harold Stassen, New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey, Senator Robert A. Taft of Ohio, California Governor Earl Warren, General Douglas MacArthur, and Senator Arthur H. Vandenberg of Michigan, the senior Republican in the Senate. Dewey, had been the Republican nominee in 1944, and despite losing that contest, he was considered to be the front runner when the primaries began. In 1946 Dewey had been re-elected governor of New York by the largest margin in state history. He was admired for his record as a crime-busting prosecutor, but on a personal level, many viewed him as cold, stiff, and overly formal.
Taft was the leader of the Republican Party's conservative wing. He wanted many New Deal welfare programs abolished. He believed that they were harmful to business interests, and he was skeptical of American involvement in foreign alliances such as the United Nations. Taft was viewed by most party leaders as being too conservative and too controversial and therefore likely unelectable.
Both Vandenberg and Warren were highly popular in their home states, but each refused to run in the primaries, which limited their chances of winning the nomination. MacArthur, the famous war hero, was very popular among conservatives. He was still serving in Japan as the Supreme Commander of the Allied Powers occupying that nation, so he was unable to campaign for the nomination. He let it be known that he would not refuse the GOP nomination if it were offered to him. Some conservative Republicans entered his name in the Wisconsin primary.
Stassen was a liberal from Minnesota who had been elected governor of the state at the age of 31. He resigned as governor in 1943 to serve in the Navy and in 1945 he served on the committee that created the United Nations. Stassen surprised many by winning the Wisconsin primary. This served to eliminated General MacArthur as a serious contender. Stassen also won the Nebraska primary, making him the new front runner. But he made the strategic mistake of trying to defeat Taft in Ohio, Taft's home state. Stassen believed that if he could defeat Taft in his home state, Taft would be forced to quit the race and most of Taft's delegates would support him instead of Dewey. But when Taft defeated Stassen in Ohio, however, Stassen alienated many of the party's conservatives.
Stassen was still leading Dewey in the polls for the upcoming Oregon primary. Dewey believed that a defeat in Oregon would end his chances at the nomination, and he turned his powerful political organization and resources into the state, spending large sums of money on campaign ads in Oregon. Dewey agreed to debate Stassen in Oregon on national radio on May 17, 1948. It was the first-ever radio debate between presidential candidates. The main issue of the debate concerned whether to outlaw the Communist Party of the United States. Surprisingly it was the liberal Stassen who argued in favor of outlawing the party, while the law-and-order candidate Dewey argued against it. He famously stated in the debate "you can't shoot an idea with a gun." Four days later Dewey defeated Stassen in Oregon, giving him momentum going into the party's convention.
The 1948 Republican National Convention was held in Philadelphia, and it was the first presidential convention to be shown on national television. At the time there were only 27 television stations in operation in the US and an estimated 350,000 TV sets in the whole country. Dewey was believed to have a large lead in the delegate count. Three of his major opponents – Taft, Stassen, and Vandenberg – met in Taft's hotel suite to plan a "stop-Dewey" movement. But the three men refused to unite behind a single candidate and the best they could agree on was to try to hold their own delegates in the hopes of preventing Dewey from winning a majority.
Dewey's campaign performed like a well-oiled machine and gathered the delegates they needed to win the nomination. After the second ballot Dewey was only 33 votes short of the required majority. Taft then called Stassen and urged him to withdraw from the race and endorse him as Dewey's main opponent. When Stassen refused, Taft gave a concession speech just before the start of the third ballot. This led to Dewey being nominated by acclamation. Dewey chose Governor (and future Chief Justice) Earl Warren of California as his running mate.
Most political pundits predicted that the Republican ticket was an almost-certain winner. Truman's popularity was down and the three-way split in the Democratic Party all made Dewey appear to be unbeatable. Republican strategists believed that all Dewey to do to win was to avoid major mistakes. Dewey followed this advice and carefully avoided risks, speaking in generalities and platitudes, dodging controversial issues, and making vague pronouncements about what he planned to do as president. In one speech, Dewy inanely stated "You know that your future is still ahead of you." One editorial said that Dewey's campaign speeches could be boiled down to four sentences: "Agriculture is important. Our rivers are full of fish. You cannot have freedom without liberty. Our future lies ahead."
Truman decided that if he was going to lose, he was going to go down fighting. In his speeches he ridiculed Dewey, he criticized Dewey's refusal to address specific issues, and he attacked the Republican-controlled 80th Congress, calling it the "do-nothing" Congress. This infuriated Republican Congressional leaders but still elicited no comment from Dewey. Dewey rarely mentioned Truman's name during the campaign, believing that this would enhance his stature by making him appear to be above petty partisan politics.
Truman decided to exploit a rift in the Republican party by calling for a special session of Congress. He dared the Republican Congressional leadership to pass its own platform. The 80th Congress fell into Truman's trap by passing very little in the way of substantive legislation during this session.
Truman toured much of the nation by train, using fiery rhetoric. he was met by large, enthusiastic crowds and was met with cries of "Give 'em hell, Harry" at stop after stop along the tour. The polls still incorrectly reported that Dewey's lead was insurmountable, and it wasn't until much later that flaws were noted in the polling methods of the day. Even Truman's own wife Bess as well as his staff all had doubts that Truman could win. But Truman confidently predicted victory to anyone who would listen to him.
In the final weeks of the campaign, American movie theaters agreed to play two short newsreel-like campaign films in support of the two major-party candidates. The Republican film was a professionally produced feature while the Democratic film was hastily assembled and cheaply produced. Historian David McCullough cited the expensive, but lackluster, Dewey film, and the far cheaper, but more effective, Truman film, as important factors in determining the preferences of undecided voters, who perceived Dewey as slick and Truman as practical.
As the campaign drew to a close, the polls showed Truman was gaining, but no pollster predicted a Truman victory. On September 9 - nearly two months before election day - pollster Elmo Roper announced that "Thomas E. Dewey is almost as good as elected. I can think of nothing duller or more intellectually barren than acting like a sports announcer who feels he must pretend he is witnessing a neck-and-neck race." Roper stopped polling voters until the final week before the election, when he took another poll that still gave Dewey a lead. As the campaign wound down, many newspapers wrote articles about what the pending Dewey Presidency would look like. Life magazine printed a large photo in its final edition before the election with the caption "Our Next President Rides by Ferryboat over San Francisco Bay". Newsweek polled fifty experts and all fifty predicted a Dewey win. More than 500 newspapers comprising 78% of the nation's total circulation, endorsed Dewey.
On election night, Dewey, his family, and campaign staff confidently gathered in the Roosevelt Hotel in New York City to await the returns. Truman stealthily got away from reporters and went to Excelsior Springs, Missouri where he took a room in the historic Elms Hotel. As early returns came in, Truman took an early lead that he never lost. Radio commentators still predicted that once the late returns came in Dewey would win. Dewey realized that he was in trouble when early returns from New England and New York showed him running well behind his expected vote total. At 11:14 a.m. he sent a gracious telegram to Truman conceding defeat.
The Chicago Daily Tribune, a pro-Republican newspaper, was so sure of Dewey's victory that on Tuesday afternoon, before any polls closed, that it printed "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN" as its headline for the following day. According to historian William Manchester, "the pollster's greatest blunder was their indifference to the last-minute impact of Truman's great effort." After 1948, pollsters would constantly survey voters through election day.
This election has been the subject of a number of terrific books. My favorites are:
1948: Harry Truman's Improbable Victory and the Year that Transformed America by David Pietrusza (reviewed here)
The Last Campaign: How Harry Truman Won the 1948 Election by Zachary Karabell (reviewed here)
Whistle Stop: How 31,000 Miles of Train Travel, 352 Speeches, and a Little Midwest Gumption Saved the Presidency of Harry Truman by Philip White (reviewed here)
Truman's Triumphs: The 1948 Election and the Making of Postwar America by Andrew E. Busch