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The Making of the President 2016: Part 15-The April 26th Primaries

On Tuesday, April 26th, the frontrunners for each of the major political parties moved a step closer to wrapping up their party's nomination for president, as primaries were held in five eastern states: Delaware, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland and the most delegate rich of all, Pennsylvania. For the Republicans, Donald Trump ran the table, winning all of the states and all but 8 of the 172 delegates up for grabs. For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton won four of the five states, narrowly losing to Bernie Sanders in Rhode Island. Though their opponents were not mathematically eliminated, both candidates now look more certain to win their party's nomination ahead of the summer conventions.



The Republicans

The primaries in this area of the country were nicknamed the "Amtrak" or "Acela primary" (in reference to the Acela Express, Amtrak's high speed train which runs through the area.) Going into the primaries, Ted Cruz and John Kasich hoped to maintain their strategy of winning enough delegates to prevent Trump from winning a majority of delegates in the primaries, leaving the choice up to delegates at the party's convention. On April 19, after Trump won New York primary, the gap between him and Cruz grew by over 300 delegates. On April 20, Cruz still maintained that no one would get the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the nomination. He continued to predict a contested convention.

On April 22, Maine Governor Paul LePage, a Trump supporter, accused Cruz of reversing his position after promising to back a "unity slate". LePage said that the Cruz campaign "stabbed us in the back, reneged on the unity slate, and betrayed the people of Maine."

The campaigns of Kasich and Ted Cruz discussed dividing some of the remaining primaries in an effort to block Donald Trump from gaining the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. But it was a tenuous alliance. For example, Cruz had planned to focus on the Indiana primary, but Kasich told his supporters that they should still vote for him there. Cruz later declared that there was no alliance. He said that he and Kasich "made a determination where to focus our energies."

On the day of the vote, all five primaries were won by Trump by overwhelming margins of between 29% and 41%. Trump received no less than 54% of the vote in all five states. He claimed all the delegates available in Connecticut, Delaware and Maryland, as well as all 17 pledged delegates in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania also elected 54 unpledged delegates. Only in Rhode Island, where delegates were allocated proportionally, did Kasich or Cruz win any pledged delegates. Trump attained 11 of the 19 there, with 5 for Cruz and 3 for Kasich. In total Trump won 110 of the 118 available delegates that night. Trump received over 10 million votes, more than John McCain or Mitt Romney did in the two previous primaries.



According to RealClearPolitics, Trump now is estimated to have 992 of the 1237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination. Cruz has 562 and Kasich has 153. On April 27, 2016, in a unusual move for a candidate in a contested primary, Ted Cruz announced that Carly Fiorina would be joining his campaign as his vice presidential running mate.

The Democrats

After a series of primary losses, Hillary Clinton's campaign had regained momentum following a victory in the New York Primary on April 19th. Clinton continued her winning ways on April 26th, with wins in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and Connecticut. She lost narrowly to Sanders in Rhode Island. Clinton won the Connecticut primary receiving 28 of the available 55 delegates and 51.8% of the vote. She won the Delaware primary, receiving 12 of the available 21 delegates and 59.8% of the vote.She won in Maryland, receiving 61 of the available 95 delegates and 63.0% of the vote. In Pennsylvania she won 104 of the available 189 delegates and 55.6% of the vote. Her loss to Sanders in Rhode Island was not much of a setback, as she still received 11 of the available 24 delegates and 43.3% of the vote.

RealClear Politics estimates that Clinton has won 1645 delegates and has the support of another 520 super delegates for a total delegate count of 2,165 of the 2,382 delegates that she needs to win the nomination. Sanders is estimated to have won 1,318 delegates and to have the support of another 39 super delegates for a total of 1357. Clinton need just 217 more delegates to reach the magic number. Primaries will be held in May in Indiana, Guam, West Virgina, Kentucky and Oregon. She could potentially secure the nomination by the end of May, but if not, more primaries will be held in June in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, North and South Dakota, Montana New Jersey, California and in the District of Columbia.

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As the above graphic shows, media sources differ on the precise numbers, but they are unanimous in their conclusion that Trump and Clinton seem to be destined to meet in the November contest for the presidency.