The Making of the President 2016: Part 12-Late March and Early April Primaries
The Republicans
In April, the Republicans would hold primaries in large states in which a huge number of delegates would be awarded. These include New York on April 19th (at which 95 proportional delegates are at stake) and Pennsylvania on April 26th (with 71 "winner-take-all" delegates up for grabs). Four other eastern states also hold primaries on April 26th (Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island). Earlier this month, the Republicans held primaries in North Dakota and Wisconsin, and in a sign that Donald Trump's popularity may be slowing down, Ted Cruz won both states, capturing all delegates in both states.
Cruz began picking up endorsements of establishment figures who were displeased at the prospect of a Trump nomination. Mitt Romney endorsed Cruz just before the March 22 Utah vote, and Jeb Bush did so the day after. On March 29th, as the Wisconsin primary approached, that state's Governor, former candidate Scott Walker, endorsed Cruz on March 29.
Toward the end of March, the competition between the three remaining candidates grew very bitter, especially between Cruz and Trump. On March 23rd, the National Enquirer accused Cruz of being involved in five extramarital affairs. Cruz in turn blamed Trump for planting these rumors, but other sources say that the rumors came from Marco Rubio's suspended campaign. On March 25th Cruz posted the following denial on his campaign's Facebook page:
At a GOP town hall event hosted by CNN on March 29, all three remaining Republican candidates were asked about the vow they had taken in September 2015 to support their party's eventual nominee. Cruz and Kasich were now changing their position. Referring to the pledge, Kasich said "all of us shouldn't even have answered that question".
On Friday, April 1, North Dakota Republicans selected 28 Republican National Convention delegates, who are be pledged to vote for any particular candidate, at the state party convention. Of the 28, 10 have declared for Cruz and one for Trump.
On April 5, the Wisconsin primary was held at which Cruz received the support of Governor Scott Walker as well as many of the state's talk radio hosts and national radio hosts. Cruz won the statewide contests and six congressional districts at the Wisconsin primary for 36 delegates. Trump won two congressional districts for six delegates. Cruz received Cruz 531,132 votes (48.23%), Trump received 386,376 votes (35.09%) and Kasich received 155,195 votes (14.09%, but no delegates).
At the GOP convention, 2,472 delegates will cast ballots and a candidate needs 1,237 votes to win. Thus far in the contest, Donald Trump is believed to have 743 delegates (I say "believed" because some of these are unbound), Cruz is believed to have 545, and Kasich is believed to have 143. Trump is less than 500 away from victory, with large "winner-take-all" contests coming up later this month in Pennsylvania and in California on June 7th (where 172 delegates are at stake). Stay tuned.
The Democrats
Late March and early April of 2016 saw the Bernie Sanders campaign on a roll. On March 26th, nicknamed "Western Saturday" by the media, Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington held their contests and all three states were considered as favorable territory for Sanders. As predicted, Sanders had a very good day, finishing the day with a net gain of approximately 66 delegates over Clinton. His largest win was in Alaska, where he defeated Clinton by a 64% margin. Less than 600 people voted in the Alaska Caucuses, and when the results were in, Sanders received 441 votes (81.6%) to win 14 delegates (13 pledged and 1 unpledged). Hillary Clinton received 100 votes (18.5%) to win 4 delegates (3 pledged and 1 unpledged).
Although his margin of victory was smaller in Washington, Sanders won more delegates from the more populous state, which he won by a 46% margin. He did even better than Barack Obama had in 2008, when Obama defeated Clinton by 68% to 31%. In the Washington state caucuses Sanders received 19,154 votes (72.7%) to win 74 pledged delegates. Clinton finished second with 7,139 votes (27.1%) to win 37 delegates (27 pledged and 10 unpledged.)
In Hawaii Sanders handily won the caucuses, receiving 23,530 votes (69.8%) and netting 18 delegates (17 pledged and 1 unpledged). Clinton received 10,125 votes (30.0%) to win 13 delegates (8 pledged and 5 unpledged). By winning all three states (as well as five of the six contest held during the week), Sanders was riding a wave of momentum moving into the Wisconsin primary, held on April 5.
Prior to the Wisconsin primary, the Democrats had held a debate, its sixth, on February 11, 2016 in Milwaukee, at the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee. The debate was moderated by PBS NewsHour anchors Gwen Ifill and Judy Woodruff, and it aired on PBS and was simulcast by CNN.
Sanders momentum continued as he won the Wisconsin primary by 14 points, reducing his delegate deficit by 10 more. He received 567,865 votes (56.49%) to win 48 pledged delegates. Clinton received 434,171 votes (43.19%) to win 38 pledged and 4 unpledged delegates.
Saunders would win one more victory, that being in the Wyoming caucuses, held on Saturday, April 9. Sanders was expected to win a majority of the 14 pledged delegates. Hillary Clinton didn't campaign in Wyoming in person, but her husband, former President Bill Clinton spoke at Cheyenne's Kiwanis Community House, to a crowd of about 500 people. Although Saunders won the vote, Clinton will likely end up with more delegates. Saunders received 156 votes 55.7%) at the caucuses, which resulted in him receiving 7 pledged delegates. Clinton received 124 votes (44.3%) and 11 delegates (7 pledged and 4 unpledged).
The next battle would be in New York, where Clinton had once served as Senator, and where Sanders was born. The two campaigns initially argued over the scheduling of a debate prior to the April 19 New York primary, but both sides reached an agreement on April 4th for the ninth debate to take place on April 14 in Brooklyn, New York to air on CNN.
Thus far in the contest, Hillary Clinton's scorecard shows that she has won 1287 delegates, while Sanders has won 1037. But the Democratic Party has what are known as "super-delegates", that is delegates who are seated automatically and who get to choose who he or she wants to vote for. These include distinguished party leaders, and elected officials, including all Democratic members of the House and Senate and sitting Democratic governors.Super-delegates are free to support any candidate for the nomination. This contrasts with convention "pledged" delegates who are selected based on the party primaries and caucuses in each U.S. state, in which voters choose among candidates for the party's presidential nomination. Super-delegates have the potential to swing the results to nominate a candidate who did not receive the majority of votes during the primaries. It is among super-delegates that Clinton adds to her lead. She is credited with having the support of 469 of the 712 super-delegates, while Sanders has the support of only 31. When one includes the votes of super-delegates in the totals, the current score is estimated to be 1756 votes for Clinton and 1068 for Sanders. A candidate needs 2,382 votes (out of 4,763) to win the nomination.
In April, the Republicans would hold primaries in large states in which a huge number of delegates would be awarded. These include New York on April 19th (at which 95 proportional delegates are at stake) and Pennsylvania on April 26th (with 71 "winner-take-all" delegates up for grabs). Four other eastern states also hold primaries on April 26th (Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island). Earlier this month, the Republicans held primaries in North Dakota and Wisconsin, and in a sign that Donald Trump's popularity may be slowing down, Ted Cruz won both states, capturing all delegates in both states.
Cruz began picking up endorsements of establishment figures who were displeased at the prospect of a Trump nomination. Mitt Romney endorsed Cruz just before the March 22 Utah vote, and Jeb Bush did so the day after. On March 29th, as the Wisconsin primary approached, that state's Governor, former candidate Scott Walker, endorsed Cruz on March 29.
Toward the end of March, the competition between the three remaining candidates grew very bitter, especially between Cruz and Trump. On March 23rd, the National Enquirer accused Cruz of being involved in five extramarital affairs. Cruz in turn blamed Trump for planting these rumors, but other sources say that the rumors came from Marco Rubio's suspended campaign. On March 25th Cruz posted the following denial on his campaign's Facebook page:
At a GOP town hall event hosted by CNN on March 29, all three remaining Republican candidates were asked about the vow they had taken in September 2015 to support their party's eventual nominee. Cruz and Kasich were now changing their position. Referring to the pledge, Kasich said "all of us shouldn't even have answered that question".
On Friday, April 1, North Dakota Republicans selected 28 Republican National Convention delegates, who are be pledged to vote for any particular candidate, at the state party convention. Of the 28, 10 have declared for Cruz and one for Trump.
On April 5, the Wisconsin primary was held at which Cruz received the support of Governor Scott Walker as well as many of the state's talk radio hosts and national radio hosts. Cruz won the statewide contests and six congressional districts at the Wisconsin primary for 36 delegates. Trump won two congressional districts for six delegates. Cruz received Cruz 531,132 votes (48.23%), Trump received 386,376 votes (35.09%) and Kasich received 155,195 votes (14.09%, but no delegates).
At the GOP convention, 2,472 delegates will cast ballots and a candidate needs 1,237 votes to win. Thus far in the contest, Donald Trump is believed to have 743 delegates (I say "believed" because some of these are unbound), Cruz is believed to have 545, and Kasich is believed to have 143. Trump is less than 500 away from victory, with large "winner-take-all" contests coming up later this month in Pennsylvania and in California on June 7th (where 172 delegates are at stake). Stay tuned.
The Democrats
Late March and early April of 2016 saw the Bernie Sanders campaign on a roll. On March 26th, nicknamed "Western Saturday" by the media, Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington held their contests and all three states were considered as favorable territory for Sanders. As predicted, Sanders had a very good day, finishing the day with a net gain of approximately 66 delegates over Clinton. His largest win was in Alaska, where he defeated Clinton by a 64% margin. Less than 600 people voted in the Alaska Caucuses, and when the results were in, Sanders received 441 votes (81.6%) to win 14 delegates (13 pledged and 1 unpledged). Hillary Clinton received 100 votes (18.5%) to win 4 delegates (3 pledged and 1 unpledged).
Although his margin of victory was smaller in Washington, Sanders won more delegates from the more populous state, which he won by a 46% margin. He did even better than Barack Obama had in 2008, when Obama defeated Clinton by 68% to 31%. In the Washington state caucuses Sanders received 19,154 votes (72.7%) to win 74 pledged delegates. Clinton finished second with 7,139 votes (27.1%) to win 37 delegates (27 pledged and 10 unpledged.)
In Hawaii Sanders handily won the caucuses, receiving 23,530 votes (69.8%) and netting 18 delegates (17 pledged and 1 unpledged). Clinton received 10,125 votes (30.0%) to win 13 delegates (8 pledged and 5 unpledged). By winning all three states (as well as five of the six contest held during the week), Sanders was riding a wave of momentum moving into the Wisconsin primary, held on April 5.
Prior to the Wisconsin primary, the Democrats had held a debate, its sixth, on February 11, 2016 in Milwaukee, at the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee. The debate was moderated by PBS NewsHour anchors Gwen Ifill and Judy Woodruff, and it aired on PBS and was simulcast by CNN.
Sanders momentum continued as he won the Wisconsin primary by 14 points, reducing his delegate deficit by 10 more. He received 567,865 votes (56.49%) to win 48 pledged delegates. Clinton received 434,171 votes (43.19%) to win 38 pledged and 4 unpledged delegates.
Saunders would win one more victory, that being in the Wyoming caucuses, held on Saturday, April 9. Sanders was expected to win a majority of the 14 pledged delegates. Hillary Clinton didn't campaign in Wyoming in person, but her husband, former President Bill Clinton spoke at Cheyenne's Kiwanis Community House, to a crowd of about 500 people. Although Saunders won the vote, Clinton will likely end up with more delegates. Saunders received 156 votes 55.7%) at the caucuses, which resulted in him receiving 7 pledged delegates. Clinton received 124 votes (44.3%) and 11 delegates (7 pledged and 4 unpledged).
The next battle would be in New York, where Clinton had once served as Senator, and where Sanders was born. The two campaigns initially argued over the scheduling of a debate prior to the April 19 New York primary, but both sides reached an agreement on April 4th for the ninth debate to take place on April 14 in Brooklyn, New York to air on CNN.
Thus far in the contest, Hillary Clinton's scorecard shows that she has won 1287 delegates, while Sanders has won 1037. But the Democratic Party has what are known as "super-delegates", that is delegates who are seated automatically and who get to choose who he or she wants to vote for. These include distinguished party leaders, and elected officials, including all Democratic members of the House and Senate and sitting Democratic governors.Super-delegates are free to support any candidate for the nomination. This contrasts with convention "pledged" delegates who are selected based on the party primaries and caucuses in each U.S. state, in which voters choose among candidates for the party's presidential nomination. Super-delegates have the potential to swing the results to nominate a candidate who did not receive the majority of votes during the primaries. It is among super-delegates that Clinton adds to her lead. She is credited with having the support of 469 of the 712 super-delegates, while Sanders has the support of only 31. When one includes the votes of super-delegates in the totals, the current score is estimated to be 1756 votes for Clinton and 1068 for Sanders. A candidate needs 2,382 votes (out of 4,763) to win the nomination.