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Johnson, like Eisenhower and Kennedy before him, subscribed to what was known as the Domino Theory in Vietnam (i.e. that if one nation would fall to communism, many others would also fall, like dominoes). He said, "If we allow Vietnam to fall, tomorrow we'll be fighting in Hawaii, and next week in San Francisco."He ascribed to a containment policy and saw his nation as being the world's policeman, one which had to stop Communist expansion. When John F. Kennedy died, there were 16,000 American military personnel in Vietnam. Although they were military personnel, the were referred to as "advisors". Kennedy had ordered the withdrawal of 1,000 military personnel by the end of 1963, but Johnson rescinded this order and expanded the numbers and roles of the American military. This was precipitated by something known as the Gulf of Tonkin Incident which occurred soon after the Republican Convention of 1964 at a time when his Republican opponent, Barry Goldwater, was promising to be tough on communists.
In August 1964, it was alleged that two US destroyers were attacked by some North Vietnamese torpedo boats in international waters 40 miles from the coast of Vietnam in the Gulf of Tonkin. This occurred during the 1964 Presidential campaign. Johnson was forced to respond to this alleged aggression by the Vietnamese, for fear that his opponents would paint him as weak and soft on Communism. On August 7, 1964 he sought and obtained from the Congress the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution. This resolution gave congressional approval for use of military force in Vietnam. During the campaign, Johnson expressed assurance that the primary US goal was preserving South Vietnamese independence through material and advice, but that sending troops over was not being contemplated. Johnson questioned the value of staying in Vietnam but, after meeting with Secretary of State Dean Rusk and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Maxwell D. Taylor, he was convinced of the need to take whatever action was necessary to prevent the spread of Communism into the south. In the 1964 presidential campaign, he professed his determination to give measured support for Vietnam without it becoming another Korea. His heart was on his Great Society agenda and did not want to divert attention and resources away from his War on Poverty.
Johnson was re-elected and by the end of 1964, there were approximately 23,000 military personnel in South Vietnam. U.S. casualties for the year totaled 1,278, but the war was not yet a part of the nightly news routine. In the winter of 1964-65 Johnson was convinced by the military to begin a bombing campaign to forcefully resist a communist takeover in South Vietnam. At the end of January there was another change of government in Saigon and Johnson felt it was more important to prop up the South Vietnamese. He said "General Nguyen Khanh (head of the new government) is our boy".
Johnson approved a systematic bombing campaign in February after his adviser McGeorge Bundy recommended immediate US action to avoid the defeat of the South Vietnamese.A group known as the Vietcong (a communist guerrilla movement inside South Vietnam) had just killed eight US advisers and wounded dozens of others in an attack at Pleiku Air Base. The bombing campaign lasted for eight weeks and was known as Operation Rolling Thunder. Johnson gave instructions that there was to be no comment that the war effort had been expanded. Johnson hoped that the bombing campaign would improve morale and stability for the South Vietnamese government. By March, Bundy advised that the US increase the use of ground forces. He said that air operations alone would not stop Hanoi's aggression against the South. Johnson approved an increase in the number of troops by 18,000 to 20,000, the deployment of two additional Marine battalions and a Marine air squadron. He planned for the deployment of two more divisions.
By the middle of June the total US ground forces in Vietnam increased to 82,000. On May 2, 1965 Johnson told congressional leaders that he wanted an additional $700 million for Vietnam. He said "each member of Congress who supports this request is voting to continue our effort to try to hold communist aggression". The request was approved by the House 408 to 7 and by the Senate 88 to 3. In June Maxwell Taylor, now Ambassador to South Vietnam, reported that the bombing offensive against North Vietnam had been ineffective, and that the South Vietnamese army was in danger of collapse. General William Westmoreland, who was in charge of U.S. military operations in Vietnam, recommended a further increase in the number of ground troops from 82,000 to 175,000. Johnson announced an increase to 125,000 troops, with additional forces to be sent later upon request. Johnson later said that he felt boxed in by two difficult choices: sending Americans to die in Vietnam and giving in to the communists. By October 1965 there were over 200,000 troops deployed in Vietnam.
In 1965, opinion polls showed that the public supported the war effort by margins of 40 to 50% for and 10 to 25% against. Johnson closely followed opinion polls. But support began to erode. On April 2, 1965, Canadian Prime Minister Lester B. Pearson spoke at Temple University in Philadelphia and called for a pause in the American bombing of North Vietnam, so that a diplomatic solution could be pursued. Johnson was furious about this criticism of American foreign policy on American soil. He summoned Pearson to Camp David, Maryland for a meeting. Johnson reportedly grabbed Pearson by the lapels and shouted, "Don't you come into my living room and piss on my rug."
At the end of 1965 with the recommendation of the joint Chiefs and other advisers Johnson decided to increase troops at the rate of 15,000 per month throughout 1966. Just before the new year, Johnson agreed to a pause in bombing. In January, Johnson convened a second Honolulu conference that he attended for three days along with General Westmoreland, the South Vietnamese Chief of State Nguyen Van Thieu and Prime Minister Nguyen Cao Ky. In April 1966 Johnson was encouraged by statistics that the Vietcong had suffered greater numbers of casualties than the South Vietnamese.
But public impatience with the war began to grown in the spring of 1966. Johnson's approval ratings were reaching new lows of 41% and Senator Richard Russell, Chairman of the Armed Services Committee declared that it was time to "get it over or get out". Johnson's primary war policy opponent in Congress was Senator James William Fulbright, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee. Johnson approved a more focused bombing campaign against petroleum, oil and lubrication facilities in North Vietnam, which began at the end of June. In July polling results indicated that Americans favored the bombing campaign by a 5 to 1 margin, but in August a Defense Department study indicated that the bombing campaign had little impact on North Vietnam.
In the fall of 1966, Johnson was urged from every corner to begin peace discussions. In August, Johnson appointed Averell Harriman as a special envoy to pursue peace negotiations. In October 1966, to reassure and promote his war effort, Johnson initiated a meeting in Manila with the South Vietnamese, and representatives from Thailand, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia and New Zealand. At the conference Johnson agreed not to withdraw from his intention to continue the fight against communist aggression. But at home, mounting war casualties made the war more unpopular. On October 3, 1966, Johnson had a meeting about the war with former President Dwight Eisenhower on October 3, 1966, Johnson said he was "trying to win it just as fast as I can in every way that I know how".
By year's end it was clear that the air campaign wasn't working. Johnson agreed to the military's recommendation to add 70,000 troops in 1967 to the 400,000 previously committed and to increase the level of bombing. North Vietnamese leader Ho Chi Minh was not open to peace talks and declared that the only solution was a unilateral withdrawal by the U.S. In February of 1967 Johnson agreed to attacks on infiltration routes in Laos and fifty-four new bombing targets in the North, as well as the mining of inland waterways to complement bombing.
In March Robert Kennedy began a more public opposition to the war in a Senate speech. Johnson's anger and frustration grew over the lack of a solution to Vietnam and its effect on him politically. He told Kennedy, "I'll destroy you and every one of your dove friends in six months. You'll be dead politically in six months". The polls said otherwise. In June, 66% of the country said they had lost confidence in the President's leadership. By the middle of 1967 nearly 70,000 Americans had been killed or wounded in the war. The war was being commonly by the press as a "stalemate". General Westmoreland disagreed, saying "we are winning slowly but steadily and the pace can excel if we reinforce our successes". Johnson agreed to an increase of 55,000 troops bringing the total to 525,000. By the fall of 1967 support for the war was dropping and the anti-war was getting stronger.
In August Johnson agreed to expand the air campaign and exempted only Hanoi, Haiphong and a buffer zone with China from the target list. Defense Secretary Robert McNamara told a Senate subcommittee that an expanded air campaign would not bring Hanoi to the peace table. McNamara was summoned to the White House for a three-hour dressing down, even though McNamara's assessment was correct. Adding to the problem was the fact that the newly elected South Vietnamese government was incompetent and riddled with corruption.
In September Ho Chi Minh and North Vietnamese premier Pham Van Dong appeared to be open to mediation by French diplomats, so Johnson ceased bombing in a 10-mile zone around Hanoi. Johnson said he would halt all bombing if Ho Chi Minh would participate in productive and meaningful discussions. There was no response from the North Vietnamese.
By this time other Democrats joined the ranks of those opposed to the war in late 1967, included Tip O'Neill. With increasing public protests against the war, in October Johnson engaged the FBI and the CIA to investigate, monitor and undermine antiwar activists. In mid-October there was a demonstration of 100,000 at the Pentagon. Johnson believed that foreign communist sources were behind the demonstration.
The war continued in a stalemate and without public support. Johnson convened a group that he called the "Wise Men" and asked for their assessment of the war. The group included Dean Acheson, Gen. Omar Bradley, George Ball, MacGeorge Bundy, Arthur Dean, Douglas Dillon, Abe Fortas, Averell Harriman, Henry Cabot Lodge, Robert Murphy and Maxwell Taylor. Most of this group urged Johnson to press on with the war, with a notable excepting being George Ball. Defense Secretary McNamara was reversing his position on the war. He recommended that troop levels be capped at 525,000 and that the bombing be halted, since it wasn't achieving anything. This upset Johnson and McNamara soon resigned.
As casualties mounted and success seemed further away than ever, Johnson's popularity plummeted. College students and others protested, burned draft cards, and chanted "Hey, hey, LBJ, how many kids did you kill today?" outside of the White House. Johnson was not allowed by the Secret Service to attend the 1968 Democratic National Convention. On January 30 the Vietcong and North Vietnamese launched an attack known as the Tet offensive against South Vietnam's five largest cities, including Saigon. They attacked the US embassy and other government installations. It was a psychological victory, and increased American public opinion against the war. In February of 1968, Walter Cronkite of CBS news, who was voted the nation's "most trusted person" expressed his view on the air that the conflict was deadlocked and that additional fighting would change nothing. Johnson said "If I've lost Cronkite, I've lost middle America".
At this point only 26% approved of Johnson's handling of Vietnam. Johnson agreed to increase the troop level by 22,000. Clark Clifford, the new Defense Secretary, described the war as "a loser" and advised Johnson to "cut losses and get out". On March 31 Johnson spoke to the nation of "Steps to Limit the War in Vietnam". He then announced an immediate unilateral halt to the bombing of North Vietnam and announced his intention to seek out peace talks. At the close of his speech he also announced, "I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President".
In March Johnson decided to restrict future bombing. In April he succeeded in opening discussions of peace talks and after extensive negotiations over the site, Paris was agreed. Talks began in May. Despite recommendations from Harriman, Vance, Clifford and Bundy to halt bombing as an incentive for Hanoi to pursue substantive peace talks, Johnson refused. In October the parties came close to an agreement on a bombing halt. But Republican presidential nominee Richard Nixon intervened with the South Vietnamese, and made promises of better terms. This delayed any chance settlement until after the election. After the election, Johnson's primary focus on Vietnam was to get Saigon to join the Paris peace talks.
Johnson later summed up his perspective of the Vietnam War as follows:
"I knew from the start that I was bound to be crucified either way I moved. If I left the woman I really loved, the Great Society, in order to get involved in that bitch of a war on the other side of the world, then I would lose everything at home. All my programs. But if I left that war and let the Communists take over South Vietnam, then I would be seen as a coward and my nation would be seen as an appeaser and we would both find it impossible to accomplish anything for anybody anywhere on the entire globe."