The 2016 Presidential Election

As someone commented recently in this community, tonight's mid-term elections mark the unofficial start of the 2016 Presidential Election campaign. The next presidential election campaign will not have an incumbent president seeking re-election, which will mean that the nomination for both parties' candidates for president will be up for grabs. After tonight, we can expect candidates from both of the two major parties to take the next step for announcing their candidacies. These people will be trying to get (positive) media attention to attract supporters, endorsements, and probably most important, donors.



In the 2012 presidential election, according to OpenSecrets.Org, the campaign to re-elect Barack Obama spent over $683 million, while the campaign to elect Mitt Romney spent over $433 million. This does not include spending by Political Action Committees, or "PACs". If one includes the money spent by those groups, each campaign spent over $1.1 billion.

There will be a Republican presidential primary debate in less than 11 months. The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation has already announced that it intends to invite the GOP candidates to a debate on September 16, 2015. It will be the third presidential election in a row that the Reagan Library in Simi Valley will host. Thus far there have been almost 20 high profile candidates declare an interest in seeking the 2016 GOP nomination. They are (alphabetically):

1. Michele Bachmann, U.S. Representative from Minnesota since 2007 and presidential candidate in 2012
2. John R. Bolton, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations 2005–2006 and former Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs 2001–2005
3. Jeb Bush, Governor of Florida 1999–2007
4. Herman Cain, President of the National Restaurant Association 1996–1999; chairman and CEO of Godfather's Pizza 1986–1996; presidential candidate in 2012
5. Dr. Ben Carson, former Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins Hospital
6. Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey since 2010
7. Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas since 2013; Solicitor General of Texas 2003–2008
8. Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator from South Carolina since 2003; U.S. Representative from South Carolina 1995–2003
9. Mike Huckabee, Governor of Arkansas 1996–2007; presidential candidate in 2008
10. Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana since 2008; U.S. Representative from Louisiana 2005–2008
11. George Pataki, Governor of New York 1995–2006
12. Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky since 2011
13. Mike Pence, Governor of Indiana since 2013; U.S. Representative from Indiana 2001–2013
14. Rick Perry, Governor of Texas since 2000, Lieutenant Governor of Texas 1999–2000; presidential candidate in 2012
15. Rob Portman, U.S. Senator from Ohio since 2011; Director of the Office of Management and Budget 2006–2007
16. Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida since 2011
17. Paul Ryan, U.S. Representative from Wisconsin since 1999; vice-presidential nominee in 2012
18. Rick Santorum, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania 1995–2007; U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania 1991–1995; presidential candidate in 2012
19. Donald Trump, real estate developer and television personality from New York

Polling data posted on RealClearPolitics.Com suggests that there is no front runner or presumptive nominee, but the "big five" in most polls are Bush, Christie, Huckabee, Paul, and Ryan.



The Democratic Party nomination is also being contested, though not as hotly as the Republican prize. This is probably because many believe that Hillary Clinton is the front runner and will be difficult to beat, notwithstanding that she will be 69 years old on election day in 2016. Nine high profile Democrats have expressed interest in seeking the nomination so far (once again in alphabetical order):

1. Joe Biden, Vice President of the United States since 2009; U.S. Senator from Delaware 1973–2009; presidential candidate in 1988 and 2008
2. Hillary Rodham Clinton, United States Secretary of State 2009–2013; U.S. Senator from New York 2001–2009; presidential candidate in 2008
3. Howard Dean, Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, 2005–2009; Governor of Vermont, 1991–2003; presidential candidate in 2004
4. Joe Manchin, U.S. Senator from West Virginia since 2010; Governor of West Virginia, 2005–2010; Secretary of State of West Virginia, 2001–2005
5. Martin O'Malley, Governor of Maryland since 2007; Mayor of Baltimore 1999–2007
6. Ed Rendell, Governor of Pennsylvania 2003-2011; Mayor of Philadelphia 1992-2000
7. Bernie Sanders, Independent U.S. Senator from Vermont since 2007 (he caucuses with the Democrats in the Senate); Independent U.S. Representative from Vermont, 1991–2007
8. Brian Schweitzer, Governor of Montana, 2005–2013
9. Jim Webb, U.S. Senator from Virginia 2007–2013; U.S. Secretary of the Navy 1987–1988

So even though we're still two years away from the vote for the next President, expect the posturing and political muscle flexing to begin very soon. And if you're feeling particularly clairvoyant (or even if you're not) please complete the poll below and make your prediction about who will carry the flag for each of the major political parties in 2016. As you will see below, my spider senses tell me that in 2016 the names on the ballot will once again include a Clinton and a Bush. What do you think?