The 2014 Midterm Elections
Next Tuesday, November 4, 2014, midterm elections will be held. Up for grabs will be:
36 senate seats (three of which are special races to fill unexpired terms)
38 governor races
all 435 seats in the House of Representatives
According to the website RealClearPolitics (RCP), 16 of these seats are "safe seats", and of those 12 are safe Republican seats and 4 are safe Democratic seats. Of the remaining 20, 3 are considered "likely Republican", 7 are considered "likely Democratic" and the remaining 10 are considered too close to call.
Of the remaining 64 senate seats that are not up for election, 30 of these are held by Republican, 32 are held by Democrats and 2 are held by independents who caucus with the Democrats. If RCP's polling data holds up on election night, that will mean that the Democrats will end up with 45 seats (including the two independents), the Republicans will end up with 45 seats, and the remaining 10 races will decide the election. This map tells the story:
All 435 house seats are up for election. RCP's polling data has 228 of those seats going to the Republicans (204 are considered safe, 18 are considered likely and 6 are considered leaning Republican), while 183 fall in the Democratic column (162 safe, 8 are likely and 13 are leaning Democratic.) That leaves only 24 races as too close to call.
Finally, here is a breakdown of the Governor's races. Of the 36 races up for election, 2 are considered safe for the Democrats and 7 are considered safe for the Republicans. In the likely column, 6 are Republican and 3 are Democrat. Another 2 are likely Republican and 4 are likely Democratic. That leaves 12 races too close to call. Some of these are interesting. They include Kansas (generally a safe red state), and Florida, where incumbent Republican Rick Scott is in a very close race with Charlie Crist, who had once been the Republican governor of the state, before losing the nomination to Scott. Crist has since changed parties and is now running for the Democratic party. Here is a map of the Governors races:
Unless the polls take a drastic change, it seems likely that President Obama will face Republican control of the House again and possibly Republican control of the Senate for the last two years of his presidency. More problematic, losses in congress for the incumbent party often indicate a change in which party holds the White House in the next Presidential election. In Professor Alan J. Lichtman's 13 keys to the White House, a system that has correctly predicted the outcome of all modern-day presidential elections, if after the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds fewer seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous mid-term elections, this is one of a number of Professor Lichtman's "keys" that suggests that change is in the wind at the White House.
Stay tuned.
36 senate seats (three of which are special races to fill unexpired terms)
38 governor races
all 435 seats in the House of Representatives
According to the website RealClearPolitics (RCP), 16 of these seats are "safe seats", and of those 12 are safe Republican seats and 4 are safe Democratic seats. Of the remaining 20, 3 are considered "likely Republican", 7 are considered "likely Democratic" and the remaining 10 are considered too close to call.
Of the remaining 64 senate seats that are not up for election, 30 of these are held by Republican, 32 are held by Democrats and 2 are held by independents who caucus with the Democrats. If RCP's polling data holds up on election night, that will mean that the Democrats will end up with 45 seats (including the two independents), the Republicans will end up with 45 seats, and the remaining 10 races will decide the election. This map tells the story:
All 435 house seats are up for election. RCP's polling data has 228 of those seats going to the Republicans (204 are considered safe, 18 are considered likely and 6 are considered leaning Republican), while 183 fall in the Democratic column (162 safe, 8 are likely and 13 are leaning Democratic.) That leaves only 24 races as too close to call.
Finally, here is a breakdown of the Governor's races. Of the 36 races up for election, 2 are considered safe for the Democrats and 7 are considered safe for the Republicans. In the likely column, 6 are Republican and 3 are Democrat. Another 2 are likely Republican and 4 are likely Democratic. That leaves 12 races too close to call. Some of these are interesting. They include Kansas (generally a safe red state), and Florida, where incumbent Republican Rick Scott is in a very close race with Charlie Crist, who had once been the Republican governor of the state, before losing the nomination to Scott. Crist has since changed parties and is now running for the Democratic party. Here is a map of the Governors races:
Unless the polls take a drastic change, it seems likely that President Obama will face Republican control of the House again and possibly Republican control of the Senate for the last two years of his presidency. More problematic, losses in congress for the incumbent party often indicate a change in which party holds the White House in the next Presidential election. In Professor Alan J. Lichtman's 13 keys to the White House, a system that has correctly predicted the outcome of all modern-day presidential elections, if after the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds fewer seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous mid-term elections, this is one of a number of Professor Lichtman's "keys" that suggests that change is in the wind at the White House.
Stay tuned.