Why the Mid-terms Matter
Professor Alan J. Lichtman of Harvard University believes that he has come up with a fool-proof was to predict who will win the next Presidential election. In his book called The Keys to the White House he theorizes that there are 13 "keys" or conditions which serve as predictors of every presidential election. If 5 or fewer of these keys are false, the incumbent party wins the next election, but if 6 or more are false, the incumbent party loses the white house.
I'll leave each of you to draw your own conclusions and see if Professor Lichtman's "system" continues its string of accuracy in handicapping national elections. The first of these involves how the incumbent party does in the mid-term elections. According to Professor Lichtman, they have predicted every election in modern times, including the last one.
Here are the thirteen keys:
1. Incumbent Party Mandate: after the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous mid-term elections. [In the last midterms in 2006, the Democrats held 233 house seats to the GOP's 202].
2. Nomination Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nominations.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. [Score one for Obama.]
4. Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real annual per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms.
7. Policy change: the incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. [Can you say health care?]
8. Social unrest: there is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: the incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign or military failure: the incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
So far, it's too early to predict many of these for the 2012 election. Next Tuesday's mid-term elections could tell us which door one of the keys will unlock in 2012.
I'll leave each of you to draw your own conclusions and see if Professor Lichtman's "system" continues its string of accuracy in handicapping national elections. The first of these involves how the incumbent party does in the mid-term elections. According to Professor Lichtman, they have predicted every election in modern times, including the last one.
Here are the thirteen keys:
1. Incumbent Party Mandate: after the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous mid-term elections. [In the last midterms in 2006, the Democrats held 233 house seats to the GOP's 202].
2. Nomination Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nominations.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. [Score one for Obama.]
4. Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real annual per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms.
7. Policy change: the incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. [Can you say health care?]
8. Social unrest: there is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: the incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign or military failure: the incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
So far, it's too early to predict many of these for the 2012 election. Next Tuesday's mid-term elections could tell us which door one of the keys will unlock in 2012.