Election 2012: Post Mortem
Although votes are still being counted in some states, we now know how the story ends. Barack Hussein Obama has been elected to the office of President of the United States for a second consecutive term. As of the time I am writing this, his vote count is as 59,634,109 or 50%, compared to 57,00,600 for Governor Mitt Romney. Obama has captured 332 electoral college votes to 206 for Governor Romney. President Obama won all of the "swing states" and so when the undecided voters made up their mind, it appears that they broke in the President's direction even in states like Florida and Virginia where it appeared that Romney was leading in the polls.
Governor Romney gave a very gracious concession speech, which can be seen in the video below:
President Obama was once again at his oratorical best in delivering the following victory speech:
There will be many post-mortems written analyzing the reasons for the victory, but let me offer my own humble analysis citing these brief reasons for the final outcome:
1. Youth vote: in spite of the fact that Romney drew large and enthusiastic crowds at campuses, when the votes were counted, the President retained the majorities of voters under 30, with an edge of 60-36 percent, according to exit polling.
2. Hispanic vote: While Romney was saddled with comments about "self-deportation" from his nomination battle, President Obama signed an executive order barring the deportation of illegal minors. It was politically smart and the Democrats received 69 percent of the Hispanic vote according to exit polls, an even higher percentage than in 2008, which probably secured the swing states of Florida, Colorado, and Nevada.
3. The Auto Bailout gave the President an advantage in states like Michigan and Ohio, Conversely, Romney had to live with his past comments which were ably spun about his wanting the auto industry to become bankrupt.
4. The Killing of Osama bin Laden: even though it happened way back in May 2011, it took away a very big advantage Republicans had of being perceived as tough on terrorism, while the Democrats were the weaklings in that area.
5. Social issues: A very contentious GOP nomination contest painted Mitt Romney in a corner when it came to many social issues such as abortion, support for Planned Parenthood or gay rights. For example, when a GOP audience applauded Ron Paul's suggestion that the government should let people die who were without health care, it made many moderates crings. In the eyes of many voters, Romney became saddled with the perception that he represented a party that would adversely affect the rights of women, the LGBT community and the poor.
6. Obamacare vs. Romney care: Obama and the Democrats portrayed Romney as a hypocrite over his opposition to a national health care scheme, when he had supported a plan with similar elements in his home state.
7. The Richie Rich factor: Democratic spin doctors launched a monumental effort intended to portray Romney as someone out of touch with the working classes and only concerned with the very wealthy, in spite of Romney's considerable generosity. This attack on Romney's character appears to have had some success.
8. Hurricane Sandy: Just as Romney seemed to be gaining momentum, he was forced to suspend his campaign in the home stretch, while the President was able to use his attention to Hurricane Sandy to his political advantage. Support for the President from Republican Governor Chris Christie appeared to benefit the President and make him appear to be someone able to work with the other party.
Having said all this, Governor Romney is to be commended for the campaign he ran. I don't believe that any of the other nominees for the Republican nomination would have done as well as Romney or made the race as close. Throughout the campaign Romney presented himself as someone genuinely concerned about the welfare of the nation, without egotistical considerations and as someone who consistently took the high road even in defeat. The lesson which should be taken away by the Republican Party is that unless they become willing to be more inclusive as a party, the support which President Obama has attracted to the Democrats will solidify even more and it will withstand even the challenges of a bad economy.
But my God, wasn't that a hell of a race?
Governor Romney gave a very gracious concession speech, which can be seen in the video below:
President Obama was once again at his oratorical best in delivering the following victory speech:
There will be many post-mortems written analyzing the reasons for the victory, but let me offer my own humble analysis citing these brief reasons for the final outcome:
1. Youth vote: in spite of the fact that Romney drew large and enthusiastic crowds at campuses, when the votes were counted, the President retained the majorities of voters under 30, with an edge of 60-36 percent, according to exit polling.
2. Hispanic vote: While Romney was saddled with comments about "self-deportation" from his nomination battle, President Obama signed an executive order barring the deportation of illegal minors. It was politically smart and the Democrats received 69 percent of the Hispanic vote according to exit polls, an even higher percentage than in 2008, which probably secured the swing states of Florida, Colorado, and Nevada.
3. The Auto Bailout gave the President an advantage in states like Michigan and Ohio, Conversely, Romney had to live with his past comments which were ably spun about his wanting the auto industry to become bankrupt.
4. The Killing of Osama bin Laden: even though it happened way back in May 2011, it took away a very big advantage Republicans had of being perceived as tough on terrorism, while the Democrats were the weaklings in that area.
5. Social issues: A very contentious GOP nomination contest painted Mitt Romney in a corner when it came to many social issues such as abortion, support for Planned Parenthood or gay rights. For example, when a GOP audience applauded Ron Paul's suggestion that the government should let people die who were without health care, it made many moderates crings. In the eyes of many voters, Romney became saddled with the perception that he represented a party that would adversely affect the rights of women, the LGBT community and the poor.
6. Obamacare vs. Romney care: Obama and the Democrats portrayed Romney as a hypocrite over his opposition to a national health care scheme, when he had supported a plan with similar elements in his home state.
7. The Richie Rich factor: Democratic spin doctors launched a monumental effort intended to portray Romney as someone out of touch with the working classes and only concerned with the very wealthy, in spite of Romney's considerable generosity. This attack on Romney's character appears to have had some success.
8. Hurricane Sandy: Just as Romney seemed to be gaining momentum, he was forced to suspend his campaign in the home stretch, while the President was able to use his attention to Hurricane Sandy to his political advantage. Support for the President from Republican Governor Chris Christie appeared to benefit the President and make him appear to be someone able to work with the other party.
Having said all this, Governor Romney is to be commended for the campaign he ran. I don't believe that any of the other nominees for the Republican nomination would have done as well as Romney or made the race as close. Throughout the campaign Romney presented himself as someone genuinely concerned about the welfare of the nation, without egotistical considerations and as someone who consistently took the high road even in defeat. The lesson which should be taken away by the Republican Party is that unless they become willing to be more inclusive as a party, the support which President Obama has attracted to the Democrats will solidify even more and it will withstand even the challenges of a bad economy.
But my God, wasn't that a hell of a race?