Checking In on the Polls
The majority of media pundits appear to have concluded that President Obama was the winner in Tuesday night's second presidential debate. This was quantified in a poll taken by CNN in which 46% of those polled who watched Tuesday night's presidential debate said that the president won the night, while 39% said that Republican nominee Mitt Romney did the better job.
The poll wasn't all good news for the President however. According to CNN Polling Director Keating Holland "Mitt Romney was seen as better able to handle the economy, taxes, and the budget deficit." Romney also enjoyed a slight edge (49% to 46%) on which candidate seemed to be the stronger leader and led by a 45%-43% margin on who answered questions more directly.
It may be too early to fully appreciate whether or not the debate changed current voting trends. RealCleaPolitics (RCP) currently shows Governor Romney ahead in accumulated polling by a margin of 47.7% to 46.7%. Factoring in margin of error, this is a statistical dead heat.
More significantly, for the first time, RCP shows Governor Romney ahead in the electoral college. It has moved that states of Missouri and North Carolina into the Romney column, and it now shows Romney leading by a statistically significant margin in states with a total of 206 electoral college votes, compared to 201 for Obama.
In the "swing states", here are the most current numbers published by RCP:
Florida (29 electoral votes): Romney-49.3% Obama-46.8%
Pennsylvania (20): Obama-49.7% Romney-44.7%
Ohio (18): Obama-48.4 Romney-46%
Michigan (16): Obama-48%, Romney-43.8%
Virginia (13): Obama-48.4%, Romney-47.6%
Wisconsin (10)-Obama-49.8%, Romney-47.8%
Colorado (9): Romney-48%, Obama-47.3%
Nevada (6): Obama-49%, Romney-46%
Iowa (6): Obama-48.8%, Romney-46.5%
New Hampshire (4): Obama-48.3%, Romney-47.5%
If these were to be the final results and things unfolded as they currently appear on RCP, President Obama would have 294 electoral college votes (enough to win and then some), compared to 244 for Governor Romney. Based on these polling numbers and the ongoing trend, it would be unwise for either candidate to claim victory at this point in time. Will this be the closest election of our lifetimes, even closer than Bush v. Gore 2000? Let's just say that such a thing is well within the realm of possibility.
The poll wasn't all good news for the President however. According to CNN Polling Director Keating Holland "Mitt Romney was seen as better able to handle the economy, taxes, and the budget deficit." Romney also enjoyed a slight edge (49% to 46%) on which candidate seemed to be the stronger leader and led by a 45%-43% margin on who answered questions more directly.
It may be too early to fully appreciate whether or not the debate changed current voting trends. RealCleaPolitics (RCP) currently shows Governor Romney ahead in accumulated polling by a margin of 47.7% to 46.7%. Factoring in margin of error, this is a statistical dead heat.
More significantly, for the first time, RCP shows Governor Romney ahead in the electoral college. It has moved that states of Missouri and North Carolina into the Romney column, and it now shows Romney leading by a statistically significant margin in states with a total of 206 electoral college votes, compared to 201 for Obama.
In the "swing states", here are the most current numbers published by RCP:
Florida (29 electoral votes): Romney-49.3% Obama-46.8%
Pennsylvania (20): Obama-49.7% Romney-44.7%
Ohio (18): Obama-48.4 Romney-46%
Michigan (16): Obama-48%, Romney-43.8%
Virginia (13): Obama-48.4%, Romney-47.6%
Wisconsin (10)-Obama-49.8%, Romney-47.8%
Colorado (9): Romney-48%, Obama-47.3%
Nevada (6): Obama-49%, Romney-46%
Iowa (6): Obama-48.8%, Romney-46.5%
New Hampshire (4): Obama-48.3%, Romney-47.5%
If these were to be the final results and things unfolded as they currently appear on RCP, President Obama would have 294 electoral college votes (enough to win and then some), compared to 244 for Governor Romney. Based on these polling numbers and the ongoing trend, it would be unwise for either candidate to claim victory at this point in time. Will this be the closest election of our lifetimes, even closer than Bush v. Gore 2000? Let's just say that such a thing is well within the realm of possibility.