Checking Up on the Polls
They say that when it comes to political polling, it's not the snapshot results that matter, but the trend. If that's true, that could spell bad news for Mitt Romney, as President Barack Obama seems to be pulling away with an increased lead in recent polls. A Gallup Poll today has the President at 50% compared to 44% for the challenger, although a Rasmussen poll puts in much closer at 47 to 46 for President Obama. A Fox News poll from yesterday had President Obama 5% points ahead (48 to 43), and a Bloomberg poll from Wednesday had the score at Obama 49%, Romney 43%. The graph below is from RealClearPolitics, who average out all of the polls taken. In an average of all polling done between September 13-27, President Obama is at 48.7 to 44.6 for Governor Romney.
RealClearPolitics have also put Ohio into the column of "leaning Obama" because an average of recent polls there has the President 5.4% ahead of his rival. This includes a CBS poll from earlier this week which put the President 10% ahead in Ohio. If these numbers hold up, the President has a significant lead in states with 265 electoral votes. He needs 270 to win the election. Romney is believed to have a lead in states with a total of 191 electoral votes.
According to RealClearPolitics, there are only seven states now considered as "toss-up" states and Obama has a slight lead in all of these. Here are the aggregate polling numbers in the states that are still considered to be a toss-up:
Colorado: Obama-48.7, Romney-45.8
Florida: Obama-49.3, Romney-46.1
Iowa: Obama-48.4, Romney-44.8
Nevada: Obama-49.0, Romney-45.2
New Hampshire: Obama-48.7, Romney-45.7
North Carolina: Obama-47.8, Romney-46.7
Virgina: Obama-48.7, Romney-45.0
History has taught us that polling numbers before the debates can be changed. John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan are examples of this. According to pollster Scott Rasmussen in an article he wrote in Newsmax today, "in the past couple of elections, the numbers have shifted three points between late September polling and the actual results on Election Day. If they shift that much in Obama's direction, he would enjoy a modestly comfortable victory. If the numbers shift that much in the opposite direction, Romney could emerge victorious."
The first (and historically the most important) debate will take place on this coming Wednesday, October 3 from 6:00pm–7:30pm Pacific time, 9:00pm-10:30pm Eastern time. Stay tuned!
RealClearPolitics have also put Ohio into the column of "leaning Obama" because an average of recent polls there has the President 5.4% ahead of his rival. This includes a CBS poll from earlier this week which put the President 10% ahead in Ohio. If these numbers hold up, the President has a significant lead in states with 265 electoral votes. He needs 270 to win the election. Romney is believed to have a lead in states with a total of 191 electoral votes.
According to RealClearPolitics, there are only seven states now considered as "toss-up" states and Obama has a slight lead in all of these. Here are the aggregate polling numbers in the states that are still considered to be a toss-up:
Colorado: Obama-48.7, Romney-45.8
Florida: Obama-49.3, Romney-46.1
Iowa: Obama-48.4, Romney-44.8
Nevada: Obama-49.0, Romney-45.2
New Hampshire: Obama-48.7, Romney-45.7
North Carolina: Obama-47.8, Romney-46.7
Virgina: Obama-48.7, Romney-45.0
History has taught us that polling numbers before the debates can be changed. John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan are examples of this. According to pollster Scott Rasmussen in an article he wrote in Newsmax today, "in the past couple of elections, the numbers have shifted three points between late September polling and the actual results on Election Day. If they shift that much in Obama's direction, he would enjoy a modestly comfortable victory. If the numbers shift that much in the opposite direction, Romney could emerge victorious."
The first (and historically the most important) debate will take place on this coming Wednesday, October 3 from 6:00pm–7:30pm Pacific time, 9:00pm-10:30pm Eastern time. Stay tuned!