A Bump in the Polls?
"Dogs know best what to do with polls."
-John Diefenbaker, Prime Minister of Canada (1957-1963) on November 10, 1971
Did President Obama get a bump in the polls following the Democratic Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina last week? Perhaps, according to some of these recent polling numbers, and perhaps not according to others:
Gallup, September 12:
Obama 50%, Romney 43%; President's approval rating: 51% approve, 42% disapprove
Rasmussen, September 12:
Obama 46%, Romney 45%; President's approval rating: 51% approve, 48% disapprove
ABC, September 11:
Obama 49%, Romney 48%; President's approval rating: 48% approve, 50% disapprove
CNN, September 10:
Obama 52%, Romney 46%; President's approval rating: 51% approve, 46% disapprove
RealClearPolitics averages the aggregate of all of the polls taken between September 4th and 11th as follows: Obama-48.6%, Romney-45.2%.
There has been no change in the electoral map, which still puts states having a total of 221 electoral college votes on the Obama side and 191 in the Romney side.
As for the swing states, here are some more recent polling numbers since the conventions:
Survey USA, September 11-Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 44%
Gravis Marketing, September 11-Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 43%
Gravis Marketing, September 11-Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama-44%
Survey USA, September 10-North Carolina: Romney 53%, Obama 43%
PPP, September 10-North Carolina: Obama-49%, Romney-48%
PPP, September 10-Ohio: Obama-50%, Romney-45%
All of this means completely nothing. There are another 54 days between now and the election and a lot can happen in that span. In 1988, following the Democratic National Convention, candidate Michael Dukakis was 17 points ahead of his opponent, then Vice-President George H. W. Bush. But in the only poll that really mattered, the counting of ballots on election day, 53.4% of voters chose Bush, compared to 45.6% for Dukakis.
Stay tuned.
-John Diefenbaker, Prime Minister of Canada (1957-1963) on November 10, 1971
Did President Obama get a bump in the polls following the Democratic Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina last week? Perhaps, according to some of these recent polling numbers, and perhaps not according to others:
Gallup, September 12:
Obama 50%, Romney 43%; President's approval rating: 51% approve, 42% disapprove
Rasmussen, September 12:
Obama 46%, Romney 45%; President's approval rating: 51% approve, 48% disapprove
ABC, September 11:
Obama 49%, Romney 48%; President's approval rating: 48% approve, 50% disapprove
CNN, September 10:
Obama 52%, Romney 46%; President's approval rating: 51% approve, 46% disapprove
RealClearPolitics averages the aggregate of all of the polls taken between September 4th and 11th as follows: Obama-48.6%, Romney-45.2%.
There has been no change in the electoral map, which still puts states having a total of 221 electoral college votes on the Obama side and 191 in the Romney side.
As for the swing states, here are some more recent polling numbers since the conventions:
Survey USA, September 11-Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 44%
Gravis Marketing, September 11-Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 43%
Gravis Marketing, September 11-Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama-44%
Survey USA, September 10-North Carolina: Romney 53%, Obama 43%
PPP, September 10-North Carolina: Obama-49%, Romney-48%
PPP, September 10-Ohio: Obama-50%, Romney-45%
All of this means completely nothing. There are another 54 days between now and the election and a lot can happen in that span. In 1988, following the Democratic National Convention, candidate Michael Dukakis was 17 points ahead of his opponent, then Vice-President George H. W. Bush. But in the only poll that really mattered, the counting of ballots on election day, 53.4% of voters chose Bush, compared to 45.6% for Dukakis.
Stay tuned.