Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections

There's a best-selling book from a decade ago called Bowling Alone, which advances the argument that people are becoming more isolated and less sociable, less interested in community. One of the first chapters in the book describes the decline in voter turnout in US Presidential elections. That appeared to be the case when the book was written in 2000, but in the three subsequent presidential elections voter turnout actually increased. (See graph below).



Below I've set out the voter turnout in Presidential elections since the Kennedy-Nixon election of 1960, both in terms of percentages and actual numbers and there are a number of surprises:

Year Eligible voters Actual voters Percentage
1960 109,159,000 68,895,628 63.11%
1964 114,090,000 70,651,298 61.93%
1968 120,328,186 73,199,998 60.83%
1972 140,776,000 77,744,027 55.22%
1976 152,309,190 81,531,584 53.53%
1980 164,597,000 86,574,904 52.60%
1984 174,466,000 92,653,233 53.11%
1988 182,778,000 91,594,686 50.11%
1992 189,529,000 104,423,923 55.10%
1996 196,511,000 96,277,634 49.00%
2000 205,815,000 105,405,100 51.21%
2004 215,694,000 122,267,553 56.69%
2008 231,229,580 132,645,504 57.37%

1. Voter turnout showed a decline following the assassination of President Kennedy that continued through the Vietnam War and Watergate. It rose slightly with the re-election campaign of Ronald Reagan.

2. It showed a noticeable increase in the election of 1992 in which Bill Clinton upset George H. W. Bush and Ross Perot mounted a credible third party campaign.

3. Voter turnout dropped during the election of 1996, but then rose for the next three elections including the two elections of George W. Bush.

4. It was predicted that voter turnout would rise markedly during the 2008 election in which Barack Obama was elected. In fact voter turnout did rise, but less than predicted (less than a percentage point.)

5. Voter turnout increased when incumbent Republican presidents were seeking re-election (Reagan, both Presidents Bush) except for Nixon. It decreased when incumbent Democratic presidents were seeking re-election (Kennedy/Johnson, Carter, Clinton).

All of this leads to another poll. Do you think this trend of increased voter turnout will continue in 2012? Feel welcome to comment on how or why you come to your conclusion. My prediction is that the voting percentage will stay relatively the same. It will be a close election so both party machines will be working hard to get out the vote. But I also suspect that there will be apathy and disenchantment among many voters, and the two will cancel out one another. PAC advertising may also be a factor to motivate voters. However, refelcting back on a previous discussion in this community, many feel that changes in the voter eligibility requirements in many states will be a factor adversely affecting voter turnout. This will be as interesting an issues as the outcome of the election itself.



Please vote in the poll and if you have the time, leave a comment with your thoughts.