• Location: in the bedroom with Abby
• Mood: geeky
• Music: Europe-"The Final Countdown"

Swing States

According to RealClearPolitics (RCP), aggregate poll results indicate that if the 2012 election was held today, President Barack Obama would win in states having a total of 221 electoral college votes, while challenger Mitt Romney would win in states having a total of 191 electoral college votes. The winner needs 270 electoral college votes, and polling indicates that a total of ten states with 126 electoral college votes are up for grabs. Those states (and the number of electoral votes in each state) are:

Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)



When I was in Ohio this week, I tried to engage people in getting a sense of how they might vote. While there seemed to be a lot of discontent about the Obama administration, I can't say whether or not this very unscientific polling was indicative of the usual voting patterns of the counties I was in, or if it really was indicative of a general undercurrent.

Many of you live in one of these ten states, or have some sort of intimate knowledge with some of them. Please comment on how you think these swing states will go in November and what you perceive as the major issues there. I'm very interested in what you think will happen there.

For your information, here is the latest polling information from each of those states, which would indicate that President Obama has a lead at this point. On the theory of politics that a rising tide raises all boats, the polls indicate that whichever candidate can catch fire in the debates and in the remainder of the campaign will capture a majority of these states.

Colorado: Obama 47.6% Romney 46%
Florida: Obama 47.3% Romney 46.3%
Iowa: Obama 45% Romney 44.8%
Michigan: Obama 47% Romney 45.8%
Nevada: Obama 49% Romney 45.7%
New Hampshire: Obama 48.3% Romney 44.8%
North Carolina: Romney 46.5% Obama 45.8%
Ohio: Obama 46.6% Romney 45.2%
Virginia: Obama 47.3% Romney 46.7%
Wisconsin: Obama 48.2% Romney 46.8%

There are two other sets of polling numbers that are suggestive that a change may be in the wind. RCP polling suggests that only 31.4% of people believe that the country is heading in the right direction, while 63% believe it is heading in the wrong direction. On the subject of President Obama's approval rating, 47.8% approve of the job that he is doing, while 48.6% disapprove.



This is going to be a very close election. The debates will be a huge factor, as will be advertising, fundraising and spin. If you live in a swing state, please comment about how you think will be the victor in your state.