The Iowa Caucuses
It feels as if the preliminaries leading up to the 2012 Presidential election have been going on for a long time. But in three days from now, the voting begins for real. At 7 p.m. C.S.T. on Tuesday, Jan. 3, the first contest of the 2012 presidential nominating process finally begins in Iowa. This is what is known as the Iowa Caucuses.
So if you're like me, you're probably wondering what the difference is between state caucuses and a state primary. Iowans vote in caucuses, which are small political meetings held in 1,774 locations scattered around the state. Caucuses are different from primaries. A primary election is very much like any other election day. Polls are open all day, and voters show up when they want. But a caucus is actually a meeting, with a schedule: it starts at a certain time, party business is conducted and at some point, voting occurs.
Matt Strawn, the chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, gave this explanation to NPR News of how his state caucus works:
"Well, the first thing is you need to be obviously an Iowa resident who is eligible to vote in the state of Iowa, You need to show up at the proper precinct, based on your address. You can participate if you'll be 18 years old on Election Day of November 2012. If you're a registered Republican, your name should already be on the list. If not, you can register as a member of the party on the spot, regardless of your political affiliation. The caucus then gets under way. There will be an explanation of how the evening will proceed, then speeches. Each campaign has the opportunity to have one surrogate speak for anywhere from two to five minutes — it depends on what the precinct chair in that precinct allows, and then after those speeches, there's no questions. ... You go straight to the vote.
"Voters get a blank slip of paper, and they write the surname of the candidate of their choice on it. Then, they drop it in a ballot box. In my particular precinct, up in Ankeny, which is a suburb of Des Moines, we literally have a sequined red, white and blue shoebox with a hole slit in the top that we pass around the room," he says. "Sounds very cliche and Iowa, but it's the truth — it's what we do."
After everyone has voted, each precinct counts the votes in front of the caucus attendees. Results are then called in to the state party, where precinct totals are added up and released to the public. No delegates attached to candidates are selected in the Iowa GOP caucuses. The event is really a popularity contest, or as some refer to it, "a beauty contest." But judging from the amount of time and money that each candidate spends in the state, it's obviously a very important part of the process of selecting a nominee.
The Democrats have their own set of rules for caucuses. This year, though, there will be no contest because President Barack Obama has no competition for the nomination. This year, for the Democrats the highlight of the evening will be an appearance by the president, via video link, to every single Democratic caucus gathering.
At present, temperatures above freezing are forecast for much of Iowa on Tuesday. That should help with a high turnout. And in case you're wondering who's going to win, here are some recent polling numbers for you to mull over (source: www.realclearpolitics.com):
NBC News (December 30, 2011):
Mitt Romney-23%
Ron Paul-21%
Rick Santorum-15%
Rick Perry-14%
Newt Gingrich-13%
Michelle Bachmann-6%
John Huntsman-2%
Gallup Tracking (December 30, 2011):
Mitt Romney-26%
Newt Gingrich-24%
Ron Paul-11%
Rick Perry-7%
Rick Santorum-5%
Michelle Bachmann-5%
John Huntsman-2%
Insider Advantage (December 29, 2011):
Mitt Romney-17%
Newt Gingrich-17%
Ron Paul-17%
Rick Santorum-13%
Michelle Bachmann-12%
Rick Perry-11%
John Huntsman-3%
Rasmussen (December 29, 2011):
Mitt Romney-23%
Ron Paul-22%
Rick Santorum-16%
Newt Gingrich-13%
Rick Perry-13%
Michelle Bachmann-5%
John Huntsman-3%
Average of all polling done from December 21st to 28th:
Mitt Romney-21.6%
Ron Paul-21.2%
Rick Santorum-14.0%
Newt Gingrich-14.0%
Rick Perry-11.8%
Michelle Bachmann-8.6%
John Huntsman-2.6%
On the graph above, the trendlines are as follows:
Romney-dark purple
Gingrich-green
Paul-yellow (mustard)
Bachmann-black
Cain-red
Perry-blue
Santorum-olive
Huntsman-light purple
So if you're like me, you're probably wondering what the difference is between state caucuses and a state primary. Iowans vote in caucuses, which are small political meetings held in 1,774 locations scattered around the state. Caucuses are different from primaries. A primary election is very much like any other election day. Polls are open all day, and voters show up when they want. But a caucus is actually a meeting, with a schedule: it starts at a certain time, party business is conducted and at some point, voting occurs.
Matt Strawn, the chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, gave this explanation to NPR News of how his state caucus works:
"Well, the first thing is you need to be obviously an Iowa resident who is eligible to vote in the state of Iowa, You need to show up at the proper precinct, based on your address. You can participate if you'll be 18 years old on Election Day of November 2012. If you're a registered Republican, your name should already be on the list. If not, you can register as a member of the party on the spot, regardless of your political affiliation. The caucus then gets under way. There will be an explanation of how the evening will proceed, then speeches. Each campaign has the opportunity to have one surrogate speak for anywhere from two to five minutes — it depends on what the precinct chair in that precinct allows, and then after those speeches, there's no questions. ... You go straight to the vote.
"Voters get a blank slip of paper, and they write the surname of the candidate of their choice on it. Then, they drop it in a ballot box. In my particular precinct, up in Ankeny, which is a suburb of Des Moines, we literally have a sequined red, white and blue shoebox with a hole slit in the top that we pass around the room," he says. "Sounds very cliche and Iowa, but it's the truth — it's what we do."
After everyone has voted, each precinct counts the votes in front of the caucus attendees. Results are then called in to the state party, where precinct totals are added up and released to the public. No delegates attached to candidates are selected in the Iowa GOP caucuses. The event is really a popularity contest, or as some refer to it, "a beauty contest." But judging from the amount of time and money that each candidate spends in the state, it's obviously a very important part of the process of selecting a nominee.
The Democrats have their own set of rules for caucuses. This year, though, there will be no contest because President Barack Obama has no competition for the nomination. This year, for the Democrats the highlight of the evening will be an appearance by the president, via video link, to every single Democratic caucus gathering.
At present, temperatures above freezing are forecast for much of Iowa on Tuesday. That should help with a high turnout. And in case you're wondering who's going to win, here are some recent polling numbers for you to mull over (source: www.realclearpolitics.com):
NBC News (December 30, 2011):
Mitt Romney-23%
Ron Paul-21%
Rick Santorum-15%
Rick Perry-14%
Newt Gingrich-13%
Michelle Bachmann-6%
John Huntsman-2%
Gallup Tracking (December 30, 2011):
Mitt Romney-26%
Newt Gingrich-24%
Ron Paul-11%
Rick Perry-7%
Rick Santorum-5%
Michelle Bachmann-5%
John Huntsman-2%
Insider Advantage (December 29, 2011):
Mitt Romney-17%
Newt Gingrich-17%
Ron Paul-17%
Rick Santorum-13%
Michelle Bachmann-12%
Rick Perry-11%
John Huntsman-3%
Rasmussen (December 29, 2011):
Mitt Romney-23%
Ron Paul-22%
Rick Santorum-16%
Newt Gingrich-13%
Rick Perry-13%
Michelle Bachmann-5%
John Huntsman-3%
Average of all polling done from December 21st to 28th:
Mitt Romney-21.6%
Ron Paul-21.2%
Rick Santorum-14.0%
Newt Gingrich-14.0%
Rick Perry-11.8%
Michelle Bachmann-8.6%
John Huntsman-2.6%
On the graph above, the trendlines are as follows:
Romney-dark purple
Gingrich-green
Paul-yellow (mustard)
Bachmann-black
Cain-red
Perry-blue
Santorum-olive
Huntsman-light purple