Presidents and Russia: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin
Supporters of President Donald Trump argue that if Trump was still President, Russia would not have invaded Ukraine for fear of a tougher response, and because Trump's close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin would have prevented the invasion. Conversely, Trump's detractors argue that Trump would have stood by and done nothing for fear of upsetting his good friend Putin. Speculation of this nature is never useful and usually pointless. What is clear is that during Trump's Presidency, he tried to cultivate good relations with Russia and saw China as the greater threat to his nation.
Trump has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin to a degree that during the 2016 Presidential campaign, many termed their relationship a "bromance". Trump called Putin as a "strong leader" and predicted that the two of them would "get along very well." Trump referred to Putin as "a better leader" than Barack Obama, and called Putin "a very bright and talented man, no doubt about that." According to Trump, the admiration went both ways. Trump claimed Putin called him a "genius." Trump was quick to brush off criticisms of Putin. When asked about allegations that Putin had killed journalists and political opponents, Trump was not critical of this, and noted that the United States has done the same thing.
During the campaign, Trump suggested that he would consider recognizing Crimea as Russian territory and would also consider lifting the sanctions on Russia that were imposed by previous administrations following Russian military invention in Crimea and in its attempts to undermine the new, pro-Western Ukrainian government of Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump expressed the opinion that the people of Crimea preferred to be under Russian rule than remain part of Ukraine. Many of Trump's key advisors helped shape these views, including Paul Manafort, Carter Page, Henry Kissinger, and General Michael Flynn. Manafort had a strong connection to Viktor Yanukovych, the pro-Russian president of Ukraine who was deposed in the 2014. Trump also believed that Russia could help the United States in fighting the ISIS terror organization.
One area in which the two leaders disagreed was in the area of nuclear arms reduction. During Trump's first 60-minute telephone call with the Russian President after his inauguration, Trump and Putin discussed the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty between the U.S. and Russia, negotiated by President Barack Obama in 2010. Putin wanted the treaty extended, while Trump attacked the treaty, claiming that it favored Russia. He called the treaty "one of several bad deals negotiated by the Obama administration". On February 6, 2017, Trump was asked by Fox News personality Bill O'Reilly about a claim that shortly after the phone call between Trump and Putin, pro-Russian forces increased their violence in Ukraine. Without directly answering the question, Trump told O'Reilly that he ″respected″ Putin and disagreed with O'Reilly's characterization of Putin as a ″killer″.
Trump's National Security Advisor, General Michael T. Flynn, represented the Trump administration in what was ironically called the "Ukraine peace plan", an plan which arose at Putin's request, aimed at easing the sanctions imposed on Russia. Trump's first Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, had worked with the Russians as a businessman. It was his position however that the U.S. would expect Russia to "work to de-escalate the violence in Ukraine". Similarly, Trump's Secretary of Defense James Mattis publicly stated that the United States was not prepared to collaborate with Russia on military matters, including operations against ISIL.
By June of 2017, State Department employees were told by Trump to develop proposals to lift the sanctions which had been imposed on Russia after its military incursions into Ukraine. The proposals were met with fierce resistance from State Department employees. This was not pursued further, in part because of the optics associated with the investigations into a Russia connection to the Trump campaign. Perhaps in order to counter the perception of collusion with the Russians during the election campaign, on August 2, 2017, Trump signed into law the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). which imposed new sanctions on Russia.
Despite the contrary opinion of his Defense Secretary, Trump continued to advocate for U.S.-Russia cooperation against the ISIL. In his first direct meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he approved a collaborative plan for a limited cease-fire in the Syrian civil war.
Trump met with Putin at a summit in Helsinki on July 16, 2018. The two leaders spoke privately for two hours, with no aides or other people present except for two translators. No definite agreements were announced. After a joint press conference at the conclusion of the meeting, Trump drew harsh bipartisan criticism in the United States for appearing to side with Putin's denial of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, rather than accepting the findings of the United States intelligence community. His critics inclided many congressional Republicans and even some media outlets who had been among his biggest supporters.
In October 2018 Trump announced that he was withdrawing the U.S. from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. He gave as his reasons Russian non-compliance with the treaty and fear of Chinese escalation of its military might.
On May 3, 2019, Trump spoke with Putin by phone for an hour and a half from the White House. Trump described the conversation as "positive" and said in a tweet that there was "Tremendous potential for a good/great relationship with Russia." Among the topics the two discussed was North Korean missile activity. They also discussed the Mueller Report.
By early 2019, more than 90% of world's 13,865 nuclear weapons were owned by Russia and the United States. The two nations were also involved in cyber warfare and in June 2019, the New York Times reported that hackers from the United States Cyber Command planted malware potentially capable of disrupting the Russian electrical grid. In response, the Kremlin warned that the intrusions could escalate into a cyberwar between the two countries.
During the 2019 G7 summit in France, Trump was the only leader of a major nation calling for for Russia's membership to G7 to be reinstated. He said he intended to invite Putin to the 2020 G7 summit, set to be held in the U.S. Trump also blame Barack Obama for Russia's 2014 Crimea annexation, saying that Obama "was pure and simply outsmarted. It could have been stopped, but President Obama was unable to stop it, and it's too bad."
In June 2020, the New York Times reported that Russian military intelligence had paid bounties to Taliban-linked insurgents for killing U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan. President Trump received a written briefing on possible Russian bounties in a February 2020 President's Daily Brief, but in subsequent conservations with Putin, Trump never raised the reports of the bounty program, even though these reports, obtained from information collected in raids of captured Islamist militants in Afghanistan, were seen as credible by U.S. intelligence officials. The National Security Council convened a meeting on the matter in late March 2020, and Trump was presented with a number of options, including diplomatic protest and the imposition of sanctions, but he did not authorize any action.
On July 1, 2020, following media reports of Taliban participation in an alleged Russian bounty program, the House Armed Services Committee overwhelmingly voted in favor of an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021 to restrict President Trump's ability to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan.
More recently, former National Security adviser John Bolton told Julie Mason of POTUS radio, that Putin withheld taking action against Ukraine during the Trump administration because Trump was presenting him with another route, that being the dismantling of NATO. He said "I think one of the reasons that Putin did not move during Trump’s term in office was he saw the president’s hostility of NATO. Putin saw Trump doing a lot of his work for him, and thought, maybe in a second term, Trump would make good on his desire to get out of NATO, and then it would just ease Putin’s path just that much more." (The full interview can be heard here.)
The Trump administration chose on a number of occasions to downplay criticism of Russia or to to forego taking actions which would antagonize the Russians, or worsen relations between the two nations, likely because in the chess game of geopolitics, Trump saw China as the greater of America's two enemies. Time will tell whether or not this was an accurate assessment.
Trump has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin to a degree that during the 2016 Presidential campaign, many termed their relationship a "bromance". Trump called Putin as a "strong leader" and predicted that the two of them would "get along very well." Trump referred to Putin as "a better leader" than Barack Obama, and called Putin "a very bright and talented man, no doubt about that." According to Trump, the admiration went both ways. Trump claimed Putin called him a "genius." Trump was quick to brush off criticisms of Putin. When asked about allegations that Putin had killed journalists and political opponents, Trump was not critical of this, and noted that the United States has done the same thing.
During the campaign, Trump suggested that he would consider recognizing Crimea as Russian territory and would also consider lifting the sanctions on Russia that were imposed by previous administrations following Russian military invention in Crimea and in its attempts to undermine the new, pro-Western Ukrainian government of Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump expressed the opinion that the people of Crimea preferred to be under Russian rule than remain part of Ukraine. Many of Trump's key advisors helped shape these views, including Paul Manafort, Carter Page, Henry Kissinger, and General Michael Flynn. Manafort had a strong connection to Viktor Yanukovych, the pro-Russian president of Ukraine who was deposed in the 2014. Trump also believed that Russia could help the United States in fighting the ISIS terror organization.
One area in which the two leaders disagreed was in the area of nuclear arms reduction. During Trump's first 60-minute telephone call with the Russian President after his inauguration, Trump and Putin discussed the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty between the U.S. and Russia, negotiated by President Barack Obama in 2010. Putin wanted the treaty extended, while Trump attacked the treaty, claiming that it favored Russia. He called the treaty "one of several bad deals negotiated by the Obama administration". On February 6, 2017, Trump was asked by Fox News personality Bill O'Reilly about a claim that shortly after the phone call between Trump and Putin, pro-Russian forces increased their violence in Ukraine. Without directly answering the question, Trump told O'Reilly that he ″respected″ Putin and disagreed with O'Reilly's characterization of Putin as a ″killer″.
Trump's National Security Advisor, General Michael T. Flynn, represented the Trump administration in what was ironically called the "Ukraine peace plan", an plan which arose at Putin's request, aimed at easing the sanctions imposed on Russia. Trump's first Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, had worked with the Russians as a businessman. It was his position however that the U.S. would expect Russia to "work to de-escalate the violence in Ukraine". Similarly, Trump's Secretary of Defense James Mattis publicly stated that the United States was not prepared to collaborate with Russia on military matters, including operations against ISIL.
By June of 2017, State Department employees were told by Trump to develop proposals to lift the sanctions which had been imposed on Russia after its military incursions into Ukraine. The proposals were met with fierce resistance from State Department employees. This was not pursued further, in part because of the optics associated with the investigations into a Russia connection to the Trump campaign. Perhaps in order to counter the perception of collusion with the Russians during the election campaign, on August 2, 2017, Trump signed into law the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). which imposed new sanctions on Russia.
Despite the contrary opinion of his Defense Secretary, Trump continued to advocate for U.S.-Russia cooperation against the ISIL. In his first direct meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he approved a collaborative plan for a limited cease-fire in the Syrian civil war.
Trump met with Putin at a summit in Helsinki on July 16, 2018. The two leaders spoke privately for two hours, with no aides or other people present except for two translators. No definite agreements were announced. After a joint press conference at the conclusion of the meeting, Trump drew harsh bipartisan criticism in the United States for appearing to side with Putin's denial of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, rather than accepting the findings of the United States intelligence community. His critics inclided many congressional Republicans and even some media outlets who had been among his biggest supporters.
In October 2018 Trump announced that he was withdrawing the U.S. from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. He gave as his reasons Russian non-compliance with the treaty and fear of Chinese escalation of its military might.
On May 3, 2019, Trump spoke with Putin by phone for an hour and a half from the White House. Trump described the conversation as "positive" and said in a tweet that there was "Tremendous potential for a good/great relationship with Russia." Among the topics the two discussed was North Korean missile activity. They also discussed the Mueller Report.
By early 2019, more than 90% of world's 13,865 nuclear weapons were owned by Russia and the United States. The two nations were also involved in cyber warfare and in June 2019, the New York Times reported that hackers from the United States Cyber Command planted malware potentially capable of disrupting the Russian electrical grid. In response, the Kremlin warned that the intrusions could escalate into a cyberwar between the two countries.
During the 2019 G7 summit in France, Trump was the only leader of a major nation calling for for Russia's membership to G7 to be reinstated. He said he intended to invite Putin to the 2020 G7 summit, set to be held in the U.S. Trump also blame Barack Obama for Russia's 2014 Crimea annexation, saying that Obama "was pure and simply outsmarted. It could have been stopped, but President Obama was unable to stop it, and it's too bad."
In June 2020, the New York Times reported that Russian military intelligence had paid bounties to Taliban-linked insurgents for killing U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan. President Trump received a written briefing on possible Russian bounties in a February 2020 President's Daily Brief, but in subsequent conservations with Putin, Trump never raised the reports of the bounty program, even though these reports, obtained from information collected in raids of captured Islamist militants in Afghanistan, were seen as credible by U.S. intelligence officials. The National Security Council convened a meeting on the matter in late March 2020, and Trump was presented with a number of options, including diplomatic protest and the imposition of sanctions, but he did not authorize any action.
On July 1, 2020, following media reports of Taliban participation in an alleged Russian bounty program, the House Armed Services Committee overwhelmingly voted in favor of an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021 to restrict President Trump's ability to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan.
More recently, former National Security adviser John Bolton told Julie Mason of POTUS radio, that Putin withheld taking action against Ukraine during the Trump administration because Trump was presenting him with another route, that being the dismantling of NATO. He said "I think one of the reasons that Putin did not move during Trump’s term in office was he saw the president’s hostility of NATO. Putin saw Trump doing a lot of his work for him, and thought, maybe in a second term, Trump would make good on his desire to get out of NATO, and then it would just ease Putin’s path just that much more." (The full interview can be heard here.)
The Trump administration chose on a number of occasions to downplay criticism of Russia or to to forego taking actions which would antagonize the Russians, or worsen relations between the two nations, likely because in the chess game of geopolitics, Trump saw China as the greater of America's two enemies. Time will tell whether or not this was an accurate assessment.