It's just the end of January, but you know that both of the two major political parties are planning for the 2026 US Mid-term elections, which will be held on November 3, 2026. All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the US Senate will be contested to form the 120th US Congress. Elections will also be held in 39 state and territorial gubernatorial contests and numerous state and local elections will also be held.

Currently the Republicans hold a slim majority in the US House of Representatives, with 218 seats, while the Democrats hold 213, and 4 seats are vacant. In the US Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats, the Democrats have 45, and there are 2 independents who generally vote with the Democrats.

A number of issues will be fought over in the coming contest including the second Trump administration's tariff policy, and the administration’s immigration policies. The Republican Party suffered losses in the November 2025 election when Democratic candidates Abigail Spanberger of Virginian and Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey won their gubernatorial races over their Republican opponents by larger than expected margins. Democrats also performed strongly in the state legislative elections, winning a supermajority in New Jersey and increasing their majority in Virginia. In New York City, Democrat Zohran Mamdani was elected mayor in a three-way race.

The second Trump administration has sought to offset anticipated losses by efforts to redraw congressional districts, and in some states Democrats have responded in kind.

Since the end of the Civil War, for first term Presidents, the President's party has lost seats in the first mid-term elections, every time except for three elections: 1902 (when Theodore Roosevelt had modest gains), 1934 (when voters gave Franklin Delano Roosevelt some additional support in Congress because they liked his effort at combatting the Great Depression) and 2002 (when voters showed support for George W. Bush in the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attacks a year earlier.) Otherwise the mid-terms have meant a loss of support for the incumbent president's party. It is even worse for Presidents in their second term, when every President except Bill Clinton has experienced the "six year itch" in which voters reject the incumbent president's party.

From these statistics, it is plain to see that history is not replete with lessons as to how Presidents can avoid a loss of their party's seats in Congress during the mid-terms. Even massive spending programs do not translate into a gain of support in Congress. From the examination of past mid-term elections that has been conducted in this series, really only two strong lessons emerge:

1. It is easier to criticize a governing administration than it is to govern. Voters can always find some reason to find fault with a governing party, whether it is economic sluggishness (or worse, a recession or depression), a war that isn't being won fast enough, civil unrest, or mistrust of a government's intentions in some grand scheme such as a national health care program, of expansion of the Supreme Court.

2. The economy is generally the main issue on voters minds. There are exceptions (such as in 2002 in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks), but as William McKinley and George H. W. Bush learned, even decisive victory in war will not win seats in the mid-terms if the economy is sluggish. Even if the economic downturn began in the other party's term in office, voters will react impatiently if the problem is not fixed quickly, as McKinley, Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama learned.

What does all of this portend for President Donald Trump and the 2026 mid-term elections? Early on in his second term, opinion polls gave the President approval ratings with an average of 53% and an average disapproval rate of 40%. But over time these trends have reversed and today polling gives the President an average approval rate of 41.4% and an average disapproval rate of 55.7%. It should not be forgotten however that just because a voter disapproves of a President, it does not necessarily mean that that voter will support his opponent.

When it comes to specific issues, on the issue of immigration, the President currently has a disapproval rating of 53.4%, while his approval rating is 42.4%. On his handling of the economy, the gap widens with only 38.5% approving and 56.4% disapproving. On the issue of trade, his approval rating is 37.8% and his disapproval rating is 57.5%, and on his handling of inflation, his approval rating is 33.8% and his disapproval rating is 60.9%.

It is harder to govern than to be in opposition, and if history is any indicator, Republicans are poised to lose seats in both Houses of Congress this fall, unless something remarkable happens. How large those losses will be is difficult to assess, and it is also unclear what strategy the parties will adopt to swell or deflate those numbers. If past history repeats itself, it will mean that the last two years will have little in the way of significant legislative achievements unless the President can find some common ground with congressional Republicans (as Bill Clinton did in surplus budgeting.) This seems unlikely, not only because of today's intensely polarized political climate.

It should not be forgotten that history has a way of ignoring the polls, as Joe Biden proved in the 2022 mid-term elections. President Trump has proved to be a survivor. Current issues including the conduct of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) will serve to make voters motivated to turn up at the polls in November, making for another year of interesting mid-term races.

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