The Making of the President 2020: The Campaign So Far
The 2020 Presidential Election will go down in history as one of the most unique and unprecedented, mainly for the fact that it has occurred as the nation and the world experienced a pandemic. The intensely polarized climate has affected not only public attitudes towards the candidates, but also regarding the pandemic itself. The election has also been unique for the fact that, for the first time in history, both major political parties held "virtual" conventions without the usual packed convention halls and all of the hoopla that comes with that. This year's conventions were more like infomercials for the parties and their candidates, rather than typical nominating conventions.
The 2020 Democratic National Convention was originally scheduled for July 13–16 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, but it was rescheduled for August 17 to 20 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. On June 24, 2020, party officials announced that the convention would be held in a mixed online and in-person format, with most delegates attending remotely but a few actually attending the physical convention site. On August 5, the in-person portion of the convention was scaled down even further, with major speeches being given in a virtual format.
The 2020 Republican National Convention took place from August 24–27 in Charlotte, North Carolina and various remote locations. It was originally planned to be held in North Carolina, but following North Carolina's insistence that the convention follow COVID-19 social distancing rules, the speeches and celebrations were moved to Jacksonville, Florida. Official convention business was still conducted in Charlotte. As the COVID-19 situation in Florida became worse, the plans for that location were cancelled, and the convention was moved back to Charlotte in a scaled-down capacity.
Several events related to the 2020 presidential election had been altered or postponed due to the pandemic. On March 10, following primary elections in six states, Democratic candidates Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders cancelled planned campaign night events and further in-person campaigning and campaign rallies. On March 12, President Trump also stated his intent to postpone further campaign rallies. The 11th Democratic debate was held on March 15 without an audience at the CNN studios in Washington, D.C. Several states also postponed their primaries to a later date, including Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Ohio, and Maryland. As of March 24, 2020, all major-party presidential candidates had halted in-person campaigning and campaign rallies.
Some presidential primary elections were adversely affected by the pandemic, including long lines at polling places, hugely increased requests for absentee ballots, and technology issues. The number of polling places was greatly reduced due to a shortage of election workers able or willing to work during the pandemic. Most states expanded or encouraged voting by mail as an alternative, but this led to complaints by many voters that they had never received their absentee ballots.
Congress has passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, which had included money for states to increase mail-in voting. President Donald Trump and others in his campaign were strongly opposed to mail-in-voting, claiming that it would cause widespread voter fraud.
As a result of the coronavirus pandemic and the effects of stay-at-home orders and social distancing guidelines set by state and local governments, all presidential candidates were unable to hold campaign rallies and public gatherings. In April, at one of his daily White House coronavirus briefings, President Trump played a campaign-style video talking about his early response to the coronavirus. President Trump accused the mainstream media of "downplaying the effects of the virus".
On June 20, 2020, the Oklahoma Supreme Court ruled that Trump's campaign could hold a rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma at the Bank of Oklahoma (BOK) Center. Attendance at the rally was lower than expected, however 7.7 million people watched the event on Fox News, a Saturday audience record for that channel.
The pandemic's greatest effect on the campaign occurred onn October 2, 2020, when President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump tested positive for the coronavirus. His senior adviser Hope Hicks also tested positive. Both the president and first lady immediately went into quarantine, preventing the President from further campaigning. President Trump was admitted to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center with a low grade fever, where he was reported to have received an experimental antibody treatment. Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany told the media that, "Out of an abundance of caution, and at the recommendation of his physician and medical experts, the president will be working from the presidential offices at Walter Reed for the next few days." Trump's diagnosis was pronounced two days after he had shared the stage with Joe Biden at the first presidential debate. This led to the concern that Biden may have contracted the virus, but Biden tested negative. President Trump was discharged from the hospital on October 5.
The president's diagnosis with COVID-19 was thought to have a negative effect on his campaign. Being in quarantine also meant that Trump was unable to attend rallies, which were a major part of his campaign. As a result of Trump contracting COVID-19, Biden continued campaigning but temporarily halted attack ads against his opponent.
President Trump resumed in-person rallies on October 12, one week after his discharge from the hospital. Since then he has continued to travel to battleground states and hold mass rallies, sometimes two or three in a day. His rallies have been criticized by Democrats and some in the media for their lack of social distancing or mask wearing.
Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence agencies have accused Russia, China and Iran of trying to influence the 2020 United States elections. On October 4, 2019, Microsoft announced that "Phosphorus", a group of hackers linked to the Iranian government, had attempted to compromise e-mail accounts belonging to journalists, U.S. government officials and the campaign of a U.S. presidential candidate. The Voice of America reported in April 2020 that "Internet security researchers say there have already been signs that China-allied hackers have engaged in so-called 'spear-phishing' attacks on American political targets ahead of the 2020 vote." On February 13, 2020, American intelligence officials advised members of the House Intelligence Committee that Russia was interfering in the 2020 election in an effort to get President Trump re-elected. This information was provided by Shelby Pierson, an aide to acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire. Russia has been accused of interfering in the election to support the candidacy of President Trump, while China has been accused of interfering in the election to support the candidacy of Biden.
During the election, a number of media articles have been published suggesting that President Trump will not accept the election results. The authors base this accusation on a number of the President's tweets suggesting that the election will be rigged against him. The White House has dismissed these suggestions and President Trump told Fox News' Harris Faulkner on June 5, 2020 that "If I don't win, I don't win". At an August 17 campaign event in Oshkosh, Wisconsin, Trump said that "the only way we're going to lose this election is if this election is rigged".
The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has been predicted to cause a large increase in mail voting because of the possible danger of congregating at polling places. For the 2020 election, a state-by-state analysis concluded that 76% of Americans are eligible to vote by mail in 2020, and it predicted that 80 million ballots could be cast by mail in 2020—more than double the number in 2016. The Postal Service sent a letter to multiple states in July 2020, warning that the service would not be able to meet the state's deadlines for requesting and casting last-minute absentee ballots. Louis DeJoy, the newly installed Postmaster General of the United States, has instituted policies banning overtime and extra trips to deliver mail, which has caused delays in delivering mail. The dismantling and removing hundreds of high-speed mail sorting machines from postal centers has also given cause for concern. On August 18, after the House of Representatives had been recalled from its August break to vote on a bill reversing the changes, DeJoy announced that he would roll back all the changes until after the November election. He said he would reinstate overtime hours, roll back service reductions, and halt the removal of mail-sorting machines and collection boxes. The House of Representatives voted an emergency grant of $25 billion to the post office to facilitate the predicted flood of mail ballots. President Trump has repeatedly criticized mail voting, despite the fact that he himself votes by mail in Florida. He has been very critical of voting by mail, often making allegations of massive voter fraud.
An unexpected election issue arose following the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on September 18, 2020. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell immediately stated that a replacement would be voted on as soon as possible. On September 26, the day after Justice Ginsburg's body lay in state at the Capitol, President Trump held a Rose Garden ceremony at the White House to announce and introduce his candidate, Amy Coney Barrett. The Senate Judiciary Committee held four days of confirmation hearings starting on October 12 and voted the nomination out of committee on October 22. A full Senate vote was held on October 26. This resulted in one of the fastest timelines from nomination to approval in U.S. history.
Overall, Biden enjoys a significant lead in support in national polling data. Currently, RealClearPolitics' aggregate polling numbers gives Biden a 7.8% lead over his opponent of 51.3 to 43.5. Biden is thought to have a secure lead in states totalling 216 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win, while Trump has a lead in states totalling 125 votes. Of the toss-up states, here is the most recent aggregate polling data according to RCP:
Arizona (11 electoral votes): Biden 47.3, Trump 47.2
Florida (29): Biden 48.3, Trump 47.1
Georgia (16): Biden 48.0. Trump 47.2
Iowa (6): Trump 46.4, Biden 45.8
Michigan (16): Biden 50.3, Trump 43.0
Minnesota (10): Biden 48.0, Trump 43.3
Nevada (6): Biden 48.5, Biden 44.5
North Carolina (15): Biden 48.9, Trump 46.8
Ohio (18): Trump 46.2, Biden 46.2
Pennsylvania (20): Biden 49.5, Trump 45.4
Texas (38): Trump 48.0, Biden 45.7
Wisconsin (12): Biden 50.5, Trump 44.8
In addition two states that allow for split voting (Maine and Nebraska) each have a single district with one electoral vote. In polling, Biden is leading in the Nebraska district and Trump is leading in the Maine district. If current polling reflected election day results, Joe Biden would be elected President receiving 350 electoral votes, to 188 for President Trump.
While many leading pollsters are predicting a Biden victory on Tuesday, everyone remembers that the polls were wrong in 2016 and no one is counting President Trump out. With a delay in the counting of mail-in ballots, it is unclear when a final result will be known.
The 2020 Democratic National Convention was originally scheduled for July 13–16 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, but it was rescheduled for August 17 to 20 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. On June 24, 2020, party officials announced that the convention would be held in a mixed online and in-person format, with most delegates attending remotely but a few actually attending the physical convention site. On August 5, the in-person portion of the convention was scaled down even further, with major speeches being given in a virtual format.
The 2020 Republican National Convention took place from August 24–27 in Charlotte, North Carolina and various remote locations. It was originally planned to be held in North Carolina, but following North Carolina's insistence that the convention follow COVID-19 social distancing rules, the speeches and celebrations were moved to Jacksonville, Florida. Official convention business was still conducted in Charlotte. As the COVID-19 situation in Florida became worse, the plans for that location were cancelled, and the convention was moved back to Charlotte in a scaled-down capacity.
Several events related to the 2020 presidential election had been altered or postponed due to the pandemic. On March 10, following primary elections in six states, Democratic candidates Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders cancelled planned campaign night events and further in-person campaigning and campaign rallies. On March 12, President Trump also stated his intent to postpone further campaign rallies. The 11th Democratic debate was held on March 15 without an audience at the CNN studios in Washington, D.C. Several states also postponed their primaries to a later date, including Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Ohio, and Maryland. As of March 24, 2020, all major-party presidential candidates had halted in-person campaigning and campaign rallies.
Some presidential primary elections were adversely affected by the pandemic, including long lines at polling places, hugely increased requests for absentee ballots, and technology issues. The number of polling places was greatly reduced due to a shortage of election workers able or willing to work during the pandemic. Most states expanded or encouraged voting by mail as an alternative, but this led to complaints by many voters that they had never received their absentee ballots.
Congress has passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, which had included money for states to increase mail-in voting. President Donald Trump and others in his campaign were strongly opposed to mail-in-voting, claiming that it would cause widespread voter fraud.
As a result of the coronavirus pandemic and the effects of stay-at-home orders and social distancing guidelines set by state and local governments, all presidential candidates were unable to hold campaign rallies and public gatherings. In April, at one of his daily White House coronavirus briefings, President Trump played a campaign-style video talking about his early response to the coronavirus. President Trump accused the mainstream media of "downplaying the effects of the virus".
On June 20, 2020, the Oklahoma Supreme Court ruled that Trump's campaign could hold a rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma at the Bank of Oklahoma (BOK) Center. Attendance at the rally was lower than expected, however 7.7 million people watched the event on Fox News, a Saturday audience record for that channel.
The pandemic's greatest effect on the campaign occurred onn October 2, 2020, when President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump tested positive for the coronavirus. His senior adviser Hope Hicks also tested positive. Both the president and first lady immediately went into quarantine, preventing the President from further campaigning. President Trump was admitted to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center with a low grade fever, where he was reported to have received an experimental antibody treatment. Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany told the media that, "Out of an abundance of caution, and at the recommendation of his physician and medical experts, the president will be working from the presidential offices at Walter Reed for the next few days." Trump's diagnosis was pronounced two days after he had shared the stage with Joe Biden at the first presidential debate. This led to the concern that Biden may have contracted the virus, but Biden tested negative. President Trump was discharged from the hospital on October 5.
The president's diagnosis with COVID-19 was thought to have a negative effect on his campaign. Being in quarantine also meant that Trump was unable to attend rallies, which were a major part of his campaign. As a result of Trump contracting COVID-19, Biden continued campaigning but temporarily halted attack ads against his opponent.
President Trump resumed in-person rallies on October 12, one week after his discharge from the hospital. Since then he has continued to travel to battleground states and hold mass rallies, sometimes two or three in a day. His rallies have been criticized by Democrats and some in the media for their lack of social distancing or mask wearing.
Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence agencies have accused Russia, China and Iran of trying to influence the 2020 United States elections. On October 4, 2019, Microsoft announced that "Phosphorus", a group of hackers linked to the Iranian government, had attempted to compromise e-mail accounts belonging to journalists, U.S. government officials and the campaign of a U.S. presidential candidate. The Voice of America reported in April 2020 that "Internet security researchers say there have already been signs that China-allied hackers have engaged in so-called 'spear-phishing' attacks on American political targets ahead of the 2020 vote." On February 13, 2020, American intelligence officials advised members of the House Intelligence Committee that Russia was interfering in the 2020 election in an effort to get President Trump re-elected. This information was provided by Shelby Pierson, an aide to acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire. Russia has been accused of interfering in the election to support the candidacy of President Trump, while China has been accused of interfering in the election to support the candidacy of Biden.
During the election, a number of media articles have been published suggesting that President Trump will not accept the election results. The authors base this accusation on a number of the President's tweets suggesting that the election will be rigged against him. The White House has dismissed these suggestions and President Trump told Fox News' Harris Faulkner on June 5, 2020 that "If I don't win, I don't win". At an August 17 campaign event in Oshkosh, Wisconsin, Trump said that "the only way we're going to lose this election is if this election is rigged".
The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has been predicted to cause a large increase in mail voting because of the possible danger of congregating at polling places. For the 2020 election, a state-by-state analysis concluded that 76% of Americans are eligible to vote by mail in 2020, and it predicted that 80 million ballots could be cast by mail in 2020—more than double the number in 2016. The Postal Service sent a letter to multiple states in July 2020, warning that the service would not be able to meet the state's deadlines for requesting and casting last-minute absentee ballots. Louis DeJoy, the newly installed Postmaster General of the United States, has instituted policies banning overtime and extra trips to deliver mail, which has caused delays in delivering mail. The dismantling and removing hundreds of high-speed mail sorting machines from postal centers has also given cause for concern. On August 18, after the House of Representatives had been recalled from its August break to vote on a bill reversing the changes, DeJoy announced that he would roll back all the changes until after the November election. He said he would reinstate overtime hours, roll back service reductions, and halt the removal of mail-sorting machines and collection boxes. The House of Representatives voted an emergency grant of $25 billion to the post office to facilitate the predicted flood of mail ballots. President Trump has repeatedly criticized mail voting, despite the fact that he himself votes by mail in Florida. He has been very critical of voting by mail, often making allegations of massive voter fraud.
An unexpected election issue arose following the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on September 18, 2020. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell immediately stated that a replacement would be voted on as soon as possible. On September 26, the day after Justice Ginsburg's body lay in state at the Capitol, President Trump held a Rose Garden ceremony at the White House to announce and introduce his candidate, Amy Coney Barrett. The Senate Judiciary Committee held four days of confirmation hearings starting on October 12 and voted the nomination out of committee on October 22. A full Senate vote was held on October 26. This resulted in one of the fastest timelines from nomination to approval in U.S. history.
Overall, Biden enjoys a significant lead in support in national polling data. Currently, RealClearPolitics' aggregate polling numbers gives Biden a 7.8% lead over his opponent of 51.3 to 43.5. Biden is thought to have a secure lead in states totalling 216 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win, while Trump has a lead in states totalling 125 votes. Of the toss-up states, here is the most recent aggregate polling data according to RCP:
Arizona (11 electoral votes): Biden 47.3, Trump 47.2
Florida (29): Biden 48.3, Trump 47.1
Georgia (16): Biden 48.0. Trump 47.2
Iowa (6): Trump 46.4, Biden 45.8
Michigan (16): Biden 50.3, Trump 43.0
Minnesota (10): Biden 48.0, Trump 43.3
Nevada (6): Biden 48.5, Biden 44.5
North Carolina (15): Biden 48.9, Trump 46.8
Ohio (18): Trump 46.2, Biden 46.2
Pennsylvania (20): Biden 49.5, Trump 45.4
Texas (38): Trump 48.0, Biden 45.7
Wisconsin (12): Biden 50.5, Trump 44.8
In addition two states that allow for split voting (Maine and Nebraska) each have a single district with one electoral vote. In polling, Biden is leading in the Nebraska district and Trump is leading in the Maine district. If current polling reflected election day results, Joe Biden would be elected President receiving 350 electoral votes, to 188 for President Trump.
While many leading pollsters are predicting a Biden victory on Tuesday, everyone remembers that the polls were wrong in 2016 and no one is counting President Trump out. With a delay in the counting of mail-in ballots, it is unclear when a final result will be known.