geeky
The Second Term Curse is the name given to the how the second terms of U.S. presidents usually turns out to be less successful than their first terms. Historical examples can be cited (and will be explored in this month's series) to show that the second terms of U.S. presidents have usually been plagued by a major scandal, policy inertia, some sort of catastrophe, or some other problems. So far there have been twenty-one U.S. presidents who have served a second term. Each has faced difficulties in their second term. Some call this a "curse".
This 2005 LA Times article, written by Ronald Reagan's former Chief of Staff Ken Duberstein, cites the following examples:
Eisenhower had the U-2 spy plane shot down over Russia, and his chief of staff resigned because he accepted a vicuna coat. LBJ had Vietnam, Nixon the Watergate coverup. Reagan endured the Iran-Contra affair. Clinton was impeached by the House of Representatives because of Monica. Now President Bush's administration is struggling with the CIA leak investigation, the indictment of a senior official, the withdrawal of a Supreme Court nominee and a less--than-popular war."
This lore originated after Franklin D. Roosevelt broke precedent set by George Washington (at the time it was not yet law) by running for third and fourth terms. Some (my research doesn't disclose who) claimed that the ghost of George Washington put a curse on any president who sought a second term. But even before FDR, every two term president had a more difficult time in his second term than in his first. This may be not so much a curse as human nature. In any event, after Roosevelt's death in 1945, Republicans in Congress began almost immediately to work on amending the Constitution to translate Washington's precedent of serving no more than two terms into law. Leading congressional Republicans claimed that their motivation was to prevent a de facto "American aristocracy" where Presidents would rule for life. Beginning with its passage by the Congress in 1947, and final ratification by three fourths of the states in 1951, the 22nd Amendment now prevents an incumbent president from seeking more than two terms in office.
Political statistician Nate Silver analyzed presidential approval ratings for Harry S. Truman through Barack Obama, and while he did find that approval ratings were lower on average during second terms, he went on to dispel the notion of a curse, stating in this article:
My view, then, is that the idea of the second-term curse is sloppy as an analytical concept. There is certainly a historical tendency for presidents who earn a second term to become less popular — but some of this reflects reversion to the mean. And some recent presidents have overcome the supposed curse and actually become more popular on average during their second terms.
Finally, the term “curse” might seem to imply that the decline in approval ratings is a matter of bad luck or otherwise beyond the president’s power to control. But the presidents who experienced the largest decline in approval ratings, like Mr. Nixon and Mr. Bush, were punished because of decisions that they made.
Ken Duberstein attributed the phenomenon to causes other than a "curse". He wrote:
What causes second-term presidents to veer off track, to drop precipitously in job approval and popularity? It's usually a combination of hubris, the arrogance that comes from annihilating your presidential opponent, the cockiness of believing your own reelection press notices, staff fatigue from staying too long in a burnout job, new junior staffers not skilled in bringing reality to the Oval Office and the stress of creating and advocating an agenda as big and bold as the first term. Add to this too much communal drinking from the same Kool-Aid, and it is a recipe for disaster for any second-term president. All of us who have served in second-term White Houses have seen this witch's brew.
This month we'll look at the 21 presidents who served more one term in office and examine the "curse" that each of them encountered in his second term. At the end of this analysis, we can reach our own conclusions about whether on not, much like the Cleveland Indians after they traded Rocky Colavito in 1960, second term occupants of the White House were under a curse.